(Photo: Nigel Kinrade Photography)
By Aaron Bearden
Eight down, four to go.
But which four will it be?
Months removed from doubts over whether the 2020 season would even be ran, the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs are rolling to toward their end with relative ease.
Six races of the postseason are already complete, with most of the playoff’s most chaotic events and venues already in the rear-view mirror. The remaining contenders have gutted out the Southern 500, endured the Bristol Night Race, survived 500+ miles at Talladega Superspeedway and held firm on a slick Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval to keep their title hopes alive.
Five of the eight drivers have won during the postseason, including one (Kurt Busch) who needed his Las Vegas Motor Speedway triumph to sneak into the penultimate round. All eight have triumphed at least once this year, proving themselves capable of a victory on the right week.
All that stands in between each of them and a championship opportunity are their fellow competitors and trips to Kansas Speedway, Texas Motor Speedway and Martinsville Speedway.
Which drivers among the group will have a chance to hoist up the championship trophy at Phoenix Raceway? Which will be left sitting in the cold?
Let’s look through the remaining candidates.
Sitting Pretty
Drivers in a good position without issues or multiple winners.
Kevin Harvick (+45)
No driver has been more consistent with trips to victory lane than the winner of the first elimination playoff back in 2014. Harvick and Stewart-Haas Racing haven’t gone more than five races between victories all year.
It’s been three events since Harvick’s last triumph in the Round of 16 closer at Bristol Motor Speedway, but that’s no reason to worry. Though just one of the Californian’s victories this year has come on a 1.5-mile oval, he should be among the favorites to prevail over the next two weeks at Kansas and Texas – the latter a track he won at to clinch a spot in the title race just last year.
Even if he doesn’t win, Harvick is well-positioned to make the next round on points. The regular season champ enters the semifinal round 13 points up on second-place Denny Hamlin, with everyone else 32 points or further behind. Even with three unique winners outside of Harvick, that means he’s positioned well to make the finale on points.
There’s no such thing as a Championship 4 lock, but Harvick is about as close to one as you’ll see.
Denny Hamlin (+32)
If Harvick is the Los Angeles Lakers, then Hamlin is the Miami Heat. The Joe Gibbs Racing star has been right with Harvick for much of the year, with just two fewer wins (7) on the season – though he did also triumph twice in the unofficial eNASCAR iRacing Pro Invitational Series.
Hamlin has also been great at 1.5-mile ovals. The Daytona 500 is his signature victory this year, but the Virginian also has a pair of intermediate wins that include a triumph in the first race at Kansas.
Throw in his 9.2 average finish and 19-point advantage over third-place Brad Keselowski and Hamlin’s pretty close to a lock alongside Harvick. He just needs to minimize issues and avoid having three drivers behind him on the playoff grid win to have a chance to redeem last year’s tape-fueled loss in the Championship 4.
The No. 11 team has been waiting over a decade for “their year” to come. This one seems more likely than any before it.
On the Right Path
Drivers sitting above the cutline – for now, at least.
Brad Keselowski (+13)
It’s been a statement year for Keselowski and the No. 2 team. Now can they finish the job with a berth in the Championship 4?
The answer largely depends on which version of the team shows up to play.
Keselowski has just 10 top-fives this year, a mark trending to be his lowest total since 2015. But the 2012 champions have made the most of every opportunity they’ve had with pace, securing four wins among those top-fives to position themselves well for a playoff run.
Recent weeks haven’t been filled with promise. Keselowski’s Round of 12 saw a 16.3 average finish that left him with a slight risk of elimination. He also has just one top-five in the past 11 races.
But that one top-five was a win at Richmond Raceway, and there’s a good chance Keselowski could make the same magic happen at any of the three races remaining before the Championship 4.
Consider this team a wild card. The year’s trends show that they’ll likely either be world beaters and win a race or fall out with a whimper – though Keselowski’s 13-point edge on the cutline means he has a decent chance to advance on points, too.
Chase Elliott (+5)
If there was a road course in the Round of 8 this team’s chances would be so much easier to quantify. Elliott has won four-consecutive road course races dating back to 2019, with two of them coming this year and giving him enough playoff points to enter the Round of 8 on the right side of the cutline.
But now there are no road courses left. It’ll take oval success to keep NASCAR’s most popular driver in title contention three weeks from now in Arizona.
The Round of 8 has been Elliott’s chokepoint in recent years, with the Georgian eliminated in the semifinal round in each of the past three seasons. He’s entered the round as high as fourth in prior years, but has never been able to pull off a victory or run with enough consistency to secure an opportunity at the title.
If he hopes to reverse that trend this year, Elliott will likely need a consistent three weeks. He only has one win on an intermediate oval in the past two years, but has 13 top-fives and 19 top-10s amid what’s been a remarkably consistent year. The only thing Elliott can’t afford is a bad run – something he’s had in each of the prior two rounds with finishes of 20th (Darlington) and 22nd (Las Vegas).
With three clean races Elliott will be a difficult out, particularly if non-playoff drivers or frontrunners Harvick and Hamlin take wins in the round.
Within Reach
Drivers not far off the cutline heading into the Round of 8.
Joey Logano (-5)
Let’s not kid ourselves here – the 2018 Cup champ’s had a quiet year by his own high standards. But he’s still in contention to give himself an outside shot at the title with the right performances over the next three races.
Logano emerged as an early championship favorite, notching two victories in the opening four races to enter NASCAR’s COVID-19 hiatus as the only multi-win driver. That made him a contender to watch when racing returned, but over the early summer Logano struggled for pace.
The No. 22 team has made improvements and finished inside of the top-15 for all but the two drafting-focused races at Daytona and Talladega over the past two months, so team consistency promises to make Logano a contender in the round. But can his team rise to the occasion with stakes higher than they’ve been all year?
That’s what happened in 2018. Logano entered as a dark horse and utilized a fateful bump-and-run at Martinsville to scoot past Martin Truex Jr. and secure a berth in the title race that he later won.
With just nine top-fives overall this year, it may take another similar rise in form for Logano to march to Phoenix with a chance at title No. 2.
Martin Truex Jr. (-10)
One driver at Joe Gibbs Racing has 20 top-fives heading into the Round of 8.
No, not Hamlin. Despite his seven wins, it’s Truex with the most finishes inside of the top-10 this year.
That’s a fantastic stat for the No. 19 team. But can they do anything to ensure it delivers them to victory lane and an automatic berth for another title chance at Phoenix?
The answer may be the key to Truex securing his second Cup series championship in three weeks. His team has shown strong early stage performances and has 11 top-three runs this year, but just a lone win. That single victory did come at Martinsville – the site of the Round of 8 finale – but that’s no guarantee that the group will be able to pull off the same feat with everything on the line.
This team has all the trappings of a true title contender. The pace is there, Truex is a known talent and Joe Gibbs Racing are no strangers to championship pressure. But Truex and new crew chief James Small may need to find their way back to victory lane if they want to go to Arizona with title ambitions.
Underdogs
Drivers with distant point gaps, likely placing them in must-win territory without strong runs and/or issues from those listed above.
Alex Bowman (-18)
Much like his leap into the No. 88 and, soon, the No. 48, Bowman wasn’t necessarily a driver expected to be here. The Arizona native is the lone newcomer to the Round of 8, having snuck through the first two rounds on points despite being favored for an early exit.
Bowman’s persistence has landed him into the semifinal round with a chance to do something predecessor Dale Earnhardt Jr. never quite managed and contend for a title. But can his Hendrick Motorsports squad make it happen?
It’ll probably take a victory or some strong runs and chaos for those around him to make it happen, both unlikely based on Bowman’s statistics. His four top-fives are less than half of any contender outside of Kurt Busch, while the Auto Club Speedway winner’s 12 top-10s are five fewer than anyone remaining in title contention.
This has statistically been a worse year for Bowman than 2019, but he can make it a special year anyway with a trip to Phoenix. His 8.75 average finish over the past eight races gives him a chance to do just that on points, too. But if it comes down to Bowman needing a victory to advance – the likely option given his disadvantage in playoff points – don’t be surprised if the young star finds himself outside of the title picture for what could be his final start in the No. 88 at Phoenix.
Kurt Busch (-21)
For the second-consecutive year, Chip Ganassi Racing has bounced back from a quiet regular season with a Round of 12 win to give itself a chance at a Championship 4 opportunity. This time around it was the elder Busch brother earning the checkered flag, surprising the field after a timely caution to claim an emotional first victory at his home track in Las Vegas.
The result was one of the feel-good moments of the season. But don’t be surprised if it’s only delaying the inevitable for Busch and the No. 1 team.
Busch enters the Round of 8 as a distant underdog, with a 13.2 average finish and just two top-fives in the past three months. To his credit, those both came in the Round of 12 at Las Vegas and Charlotte, showing that the veteran is capable of rising to the occasion as he did in his breakthrough 2004 title run in what was then the Chase for the Cup.
If Busch can match his Nevada heroics then he’ll be due for a Championship 4 berth and a shot at his first title in 16 years – the longest gap between titles for any driver in NASCAR history if he could pull it off.
But don’t be too surprised if the No. 1 team falls out of title contention in three weeks. They’ve arguably already exceeded expectations in making it this far.
My Picks: Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin, Brad Keselowski and Martin Truex Jr.
