(Photo: Nigel Kinrade Photography)
By Aaron Bearden
It’s been a surreal, chaotic year of NASCAR Cup Series competition. But after seven months, 26 races, the rise of a pandemic and even a brief eSports venture, the time to crown a 2020 champion has come.
The playoff field was officially set at the conclusion of the Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona International Speedway, bringing to light the 16 drivers that will battle over the next 10 weeks for a chance to hoist up the championship trophy at Phoenix Raceway. Included in the mix are dominant veterans, rising young stars, a surprising rookie and a journeyman capitalizing on an opportunity years in the making.
Each enters the postseason with hopes of a championship celebration, but not all contenders are equal. Here’s a look at the field, including their path to the playoffs and chances to make their title dreams come to fruition.
1) Kevin Harvick
Wins: Seven (Darlington, Atlanta, Pocono, Indianapolis, Michigan (twice), Dover)
Playoff Points: 57
How He Got Here: With sheer dominance. Harvick is on pace for his first 10-win season heading into the playoffs, having locked up the regular season title with seven victories and a ludicrous 6.6 average finish in the first 26 races.
Championship Odds: High
No driver is better positioned to bring home this year’s Cup title than the winner of the first championship under the elimination format in 2014. Harvick’s 57 playoff points give him a full race’s edge on most of the field in each round, affording him the easiest possible path to the Championship 4. With the title race moved to Phoenix Raceway, where the Californian has nine wins in 35 starts, he figures to be an instant favorite regardless of who may run against him. Harvick’s going to be a tough out from start to finish.
2) Denny Hamlin
Wins: Six (Daytona, Darlington, Homestead, Pocono, Kansas, Dover)
Playoff Points: 47
How He Got Here: With a redemptive regular season. Last fall’s title failure due to a piece of tape gone wrong at Homestead-Miami Speedway inspired the No. 11 team, which scored a Homestead win along with five other triumphs that included a third Daytona 500 victory. Hamlin also claimed multiple stages and even tacked on two wins in the brief eNASCAR iRacing Pro Invitational Series.
Championship Odds: High
Not only is Hamlin in the midst of perhaps his best season ever, but the Virginian is the top contender for a Toyota group that’s won three of the past five titles. The move from Homestead may provide a twist to the run, but Hamlin also won last fall’s trip to Phoenix Raceway.
3: Brad Keselowski
Wins: Three (Charlotte, Bristol, New Hampshire)
Playoff Points: 29
How He Got Here: With strong pace and sneaky success. Keselowski and new crew chief Jeremy Bullins were a wild card this year, but snagged a Coca-Cola 600 win after staying out when the dominant Chase Elliott pitted late in the running. The pair tacked on two more victories to enter the postseason as the leader of a strong Team Penske trio.
Championship Odds: Above Average
It’s difficult to get a read on Keselowski and the No. 2 crew, but that’s often when they’re at their best. The Michigander’s 9.7 average finish is better than he managed in his 2012 title run (10.1), while his nine top-fives and 19 top-10s are both above his pace in recent years. That makes Keselowski a strong threat to make a Championship 4 appearance, even if he might not be an outright favorite to take the title.
4: Joey Logano
Wins: Two (Las Vegas, Phoenix)
Playoff Points: 22
How He Got Here: By being the best in the series… Until COVID-19 hit. Logano and the No. 22 team won two of the opening four races, but went winless after racing returned during an initial summer struggle. The group did start to turn things around late, though, snagging seven top-10s in the final nine races of the regular season.
Championship Odds: Above Average
This may not have been the case back in late June or early July, but Logano’s squad has proven capable of putting together consistent runs in recent weeks. With their slight playoff point advantage, that could prove to be enough to get the team to Phoenix with a chance even if they don’t win beforehand. Logano isn’t a dominant contender, but is well-positioned for another upset run like he managed against the “Big Three” in his 2018 title triumph.
5: Chase Elliott
Wins: Two (Charlotte, Daytona RC)
Playoff Points: 20
How He Got Here: By making the most of his opportunities… Well, outside of the Coca-Cola 600. Elliott rarely had dominant pace, but made the most of strong cars at Charlotte, the Daytona Road Course and Bristol Motor Speedway to score two points-paying wins and his first All-Star Race triumph. A run of 10 top-fives and 15 top-10s was enough for the Georgian to add additional playoff points for his regular season position and enter the playoffs among the top contenders.
Championship Odds: Above Average
…Albeit only slightly. Elliott has proven capable of success at both Talladega Superspeedway and the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval in recent years, which could help him get through the wild card Round of 12. If he can get survive that stretch and get to the Round of 8, then the second-generation star will have as good a chance as any to make a trip to Phoenix and contend for a title.
6: Martin Truex Jr.
Wins: One (Martinsville)
Playoff Points: 14
How He Got Here: With a strong, if underwhelming, regular season. At his best Truex looked like the MTJ of old despite running with a new crew chief in James Small, leading 566 laps and securing a Martinsville Speedway win along with 11 top-fives. But given his pace the No. 19 team probably would have expected more than the 14 playoff points they’re rolling into the postseason with.
Championship Odds: Above Average
This is another difficult one to gauge. Truex is a previous champion with a winning resume and enters with enough pace to potentially tally more top-fives this year than he did in his final season with Cole Pearn atop the box. That said, his team may need to turn a few more of those runs into victories if they want a shot at the title come November.
7: Ryan Blaney
Wins: One (Talladega)
Playoff Points: 13
How He Got Here: With an impressive stretch and a Talladega triumph. Blaney came close to multiple victories early in the year and scored both a win and six top-fives in seven races after struggling in the Darlington Raceway return week. But he’s gone in the opposite direction of teammate Joey Logano in recent months, with just four top-10s in the 13 races since that stretch.
Championship Odds: Average
Given his early pace, Blaney and the No. 12 team have shown that they’re capable of the kind of performance needed to make a playoff push. But based on recent trends it’s difficult to give Blaney more than an average outlook heading into his fourth postseason appearance.
8: Alex Bowman
Wins: One (Fontana)
Playoff Points: Nine
How He Got Here: With an early victory. Bowman looked like a contender to open the year, dominating at Auto Club Speedway for his second win and coming one spot short of another victory when racing returned at Darlington Raceway. He struggled through the summer, though, with just one top-five in the ensuing 21 races.
Championship Odds: Below Average
Early pace aside, Bowman had dropped outside of the top-10 and would have been at potential risk of elimination had he not scored the early victory. He’s entering the postseason with the momentum of consecutive top-10s, but his No. 88 team’s going to need to show winning pace again to make a serious charge.
9: William Byron
Wins: One (Daytona)
Playoff Points: Seven
How He Got Here: With a clutch Daytona drive. Entering on the playoff bubble after a summer slog, Byron stormed to his first win in the final laps to ensure his playoff appearance wasn’t in doubt.
Championship Odds: Below Average
Byron’s entering the postseason with a win and back-to-back finishes in the top five. That’s great. The problem is that the 24 races beforehand contained zero of either stat. That makes Byron an unlikely title contender unless he can keep his recent run of form rolling.
10: Austin Dillon
Wins: One (Texas)
Playoff Points: Five
How He Got Here: With a highlight amid a wild year. Dillon missed a race with COVID-19, exited another with heat exhaustion after damaging crush panels and welcomed his first child, Ace, with wife Whitney along the summer stretch. Mixed in between it all was a victory after a smart strategy play at Texas Motor Speedway, locking the 2018 Daytona 500 winner into the playoffs.
Championship Odds: Low
Dillon’s ability to consistently crack the playoff field – making four of the past five postseasons – has been a positive for Richard Childress Racing, but the No. 3 Chevrolet doesn’t seem to have the pace needed for a deep playoff run, as indicated by his 16.9 average finish.
11: Cole Custer
Wins: One (Kentucky)
Playoff Points: Five
How He Got Here: With a shocking win. Custer stormed to the lead with a four-wide move on the outside lane at the white flag to score a memorable first victory at Kentucky Speedway. The result overrode what had been a difficult regular season and locked the Californian into the playoff field.
Championship Odds: Low
Custer has traditionally been a slow starter at each level, so his early Cup triumph makes this year a success regardless of his playoff outcome. But the odds of Custer managing similar results are much lower than those of a playoff struggle, particularly from a driver with more finishes outside of the top-20 (12) than inside of the top-10 (six).
12: Aric Almirola
Wins: Zero
Playoff Points: Five
How He Got Here: With impressive summer pace. Almirola never found victory lane, but he scored a career best five top-five finishes in a row from June through early July and wrapped up the regular season with a personal best 12.7 average finish to make the playoffs with ease.
Championship Odds: Average
Penciled in as a dark horse among his peers, Almirola is a genuine threat to make the Championship 4 based on his pace and consistency. But he’ll likely need a winning drive to score a title even if he makes a debut appearance in the final round, something this No. 10 team has yet to show in 2020.
13: Clint Bowyer
Wins: Zero
Playoff Points: Four
How He Got Here: With a quiet regular season. Outside of securing two stage wins at Darlington Raceway, Bowyer spent most of the season running between sixth and 20th. He suffered only one DNF, but also had twice as many finishes outside of the top-20 (four) as he did top-fives (two).
Championship Odds: Below Average
Teammate Kevin Harvick has shown the pace and potential Stewart-Haas Racing has. If Bowyer’s No. 14 team can find that they might prove to be a genuine threat. But if Bowyer can’t find the front, or at least the top-five, with some consistency he’s more likely to see an early exit than mount a championship challenge.
14: Kyle Busch
Wins: Zero
Playoff Points: Three
How He Got Here: Angrily. Busch spent the stretch run of regular season repeating that it was “still 2020” after numerous setbacks. He failed to win a single race, instead crashing out in three of the final seven events, but stayed well above the cutline due to his 11 top-fives.
Championship Odds: Average
…And that’s being generous. Busch is the defending champion and has made the Championship 4 for five-straight years, so his rivals know that he could hit his stride and rattle off multiple wins at any moment. But based on his three playoff points and lack of winning pace to date, even Busch’s talent and pedigree aren’t enough to list him among the favorites this year.
15: Kurt Busch
Wins: Zero
Playoff Points: One
How He Got Here: One race at a time. The 2004 Cup champion just didn’t have the pace to challenge for wins during the regular season, leading 91 laps and finishing no better than third along the way. But he was a beacon of consistency amid a tumultuous year for Chip Ganassi Racing, finishing inside of the top-20 for 21-consecutive races before suffering a pair of DNFs in the final two weeks.
Championship Odds: Below Average
Consistency alone could help deliver the elder Busch brother to the Round of 12 and, given the chaotic nature of the schedule, potentially even the Round of 8. But it’s difficult to see Busch rising beyond that without at least one trip to victory lane – something his team hasn’t shown much capability of managing thus far.
16: Matt DiBenedetto
Wins: Zero
Playoff Points: Zero
How He Got Here: By sheer determination and a stroke of Daytona fortune, DiBenedetto got the No. 21 ride by surprise when Paul Menard retired early in 2019, put together a quiet, but consistent regular season and entered the final weeks in position to crack the playoff field. A paired Hendrick Motorsports effort nearly lifted Byron and Jimmie Johnson ahead of him at Daytona, but Johnson got caught up in a crash and DiBenedetto was able to secure the final playoff spot.
Championship Odds: Low
Making the playoffs was a solid accomplishment for DiBenedetto and the historic Wood Brothers Racing organization, but it might be difficult for the Californian to capitalize on it. He’s the only contender without a playoff point, has just two top-fives and a 15.0 average finish to date and led a mere 51 laps during the opening 26 races. That won’t be enough for a serious run at the title, so it’ll be up to the group to find a way to elevate their pace heading through the next 10 races.
