Good luck.
NASCAR’s entering perhaps its most unpredictable playoffs ever this season. The playoff point battle is right. Both opening rounds feature a drafting track and a road course. The Round of 16 adds Bristol Motor Speedway to up the wildcard factor. Numerous potential contenders are entering after summer struggles, while others are in after shocking summer wins and hoping to mix up the status quo.
Simply put, this year’s NASCAR postseason is as prone to chaos as any in the sport’s brief elimination playoff history. What it lacks in outright evenness from the 2014-16 era without playoff points, it makes up for with the Next Gen car, opportunities for drivers to get caught up in messes outside of their control and challenging circuits like Watkins Glen International and the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval.
That said, there are some clear favorites and underdogs. So at the risk of embarrassing myself in a couple months, I’ve taken a shot at predicting how this year’s Cup Series playoffs will play out.
Take this all with a grain of salt, but here are my round-by-round picks.
Round of 16
Tracks: Atlanta Motor Speedway, Watkins Glen International, Bristol Motor Speedway
Who I’ve Got Advancing: Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, Tyler Reddick, William Byron, Ryan Blaney, Denny Hamlin, Chase Elliott, Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano, Alex Bowman, Daniel Suarez and Ty Gibbs.
Who’s Out: Austin Cindric, Chase Briscoe, Harrison Burton and Martin Truex Jr.
Few rounds in NASCAR history have been as poised for chaos as this year’s Round of 16. Every track is a wildcard. There’s the drafting-focused Atlanta, a road course in Watkins Glen and the high banks of Bristol. The spring trip to Bristol was a crazy tire conservation race and Watkins Glen is expected to have intensive falloff this year. Atlanta could provide a playoff-ruining crash at any moment.
That collectively means that anything could realistically happen. No driver is going to be safe, which makes it difficult to try to forecast what will play out. But I’ll try my best.
Larson, Bell, Reddick and Byron have enough playoff points to survive if something goes awry in one race. I trust Blaney, Hamlin and Elliott to sneak their way through with consistency.
That leaves five spots. Keselowski should be able to do enough at Atlanta to overcome his Next Gen road course struggles and advance with a strong drive in Bristol. It’s an even year, so you have to give Logano the edge to advance through at least the first round – he’s made the Championship 4 in every even year during the elimination playoff era to date, after all. Bowman’s had his struggles, but should be able to do enough to get through the opening round.
It’s difficult to know what to expect from Gibbs, but the sophomore’s ran well enough to believe that he can squeak through at least one round. As for the last spot, I give the edge to Suarez. It’s not that he’s ran particularly well this year, but the opening two races are at a pair of the Mexican star’s best tracks. If he steps up, Suarez could build a big enough cushion to cruise through at Bristol.
If they can’t pull off another surprise win, I foresee Cindric, Briscoe and Burton making an early playoff exit. Each pulled off some heroics to make the playoffs at the end of rare great runs, but they’ve consistently struggled outside of those breakthroughs.
Someone else has to go, too. As much as it pains me to say it, I think it could be Truex. The 2017 champ’s struggled lately and is going through a playoff run overshadowed by his impending retirement. It’s led to early playoff exits for many previous NASCAR greats. I think we could see the same thing happen here.
Round of 12
Tracks: Kansas Speedway, Talladega Superspeedway, Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval
Who I’ve Got Advancing: Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, Tyler Reddick, William Byron, Ryan Blaney, Denny Hamlin, Chase Elliott, Brad Keselowski,
Who’s Out: Joey Logano, Alex Bowman, Daniel Suarez and Ty Gibbs.
The lucky dozen that make it through to the second round of the playoffs are in for another doozy in the Round of 12. This round features yet another superspeedway with a race at Talladega and ends at the Charlotte Roval. The main difference this time around? A traditional intermediate in Kansas to open the round, providing an opportunity for teams to set themselves up for success from the start,
That race should open the door for the expected contenders to give themselves a healthy advantage before Talladega. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Larson win again.
Keselowski also figures to run well in Kansas based on RFK Racing’s strong performance with Chris Buescher in May. Talladega provides a good opportunity for Keselowski to shine, too. Once again, I think these strong tracks could be enough to help the 2012 champ overcome his recent road course challenges and sneak through to the next round.
Reddick is strong enough to contend anywhere and won at Talladega in the spring. Blaney could easily win in Alabama or make a strong run at the Roval. This round could trip up Bell, but he has a healthy playoff point cushion to fall back on. Byron’s been quiet in the summer, but has enough playoff points to skirt by if he can do just enough. Elliott’s been consistent enough to pencil him into the semifinal round.
There could come a time when Hamlin’s lost playoff points from his late-season penalties hurt him, but I don’t think it happens here. The Virginian should be able to score enough points to sneak through to the Round of 12.
That would leave Logano, Bowman, Suarez and Gibbs on the outside looking in. Logano is always capable of a deep playoff run, but hasn’t shown that title-winning form this year. Bowman’s capable of contending on his best days, but the bad days are likely to catch up to him by this stage. Suarez could pull off some Talladega heroics but hasn’t had the consistent pace to dare moving him beyond the Round of 12.
As for Gibbs? I’m just taking a guess based on history. It’s rare for a Cup driver this inexperienced to make a deep postseason run, especially when he has the fewest playoff points of the group. There’s no shame in an early exit for someone so new to this stage. He could be a title contender for years to come.
Round of 8
Tracks: Las Vegas Motor Speedway, Homestead-Miami Speedway, Martinsville Speedway
Who I’ve Got Advancing: Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, Tyler Reddick, Ryan Blaney.
Who’s Out: William Byron, Denny Hamlin, Chase Elliott, Brad Keselowski.
This is when the excuses stop. The Round of 8 has three standard tracks in Las Vegas, Homestead and Martinsville. There aren’t any flukes or surprises here, just three tough races that’ll push the remaining contenders to their limits and expose any weaknesses.
It’ll likely take a win or major points haul to secure a Championship 4 place. Generally speaking, that means this round should favor the teams that have ran the strongest all year. If they can get through the chaotic opening rounds, I think Larson, Bell and Reddick will all make their way through this round to the Championship 4. It’s likely the opening two wins come from this group, particularly at Homestead.
When it comes to the final spot, few drivers seem as consistent and capable to making a run as the defending champ, Blaney. He could easily win any of these three tracks and has potential to point his way through even if he fails to secure a checkered flag.
Byron could hold his own here – he just made the Championship 4 last year – but the No. 24 team has struggled and a slim playoff point cushion won’t be enough to bail it out if that continues. Elliott has been as consistent as anyone, but hasn’t often looked like a race winner and might need to be if he wants to make the Championship 4.
Remember earlier when I said Hamlin’s penalty could come back to bite him? I think it does in the Round of 8, forcing the Virginian to aim for a late win. He hasn’t prevailed in a race since the spring and I don’t think it’ll happen here.
As for Keselowski, RFK Racing’s ceiling just seems to be the Round of 8 right now. The team has B+ speed and A-level talent, but that’s not enough when paired against the sport’s absolute best for multiple weeks. Buescher quietly exited in this round last year. Keselowski could do the same this fall.
Championship 4
My Championship Pick: Kyle Larson
Runners Up: Christopher Bell, Tyler Reddick, Ryan Blaney
I know, I know. This is a boring choice. But it’s difficult to pick against arguably the best driver and team in America. Larson and the No. 5 team have proven capable of contending and winning anywhere when the group avoids mistakes. This is a squad that’s already risen to the occasion in 2021. There’s little reason to think it couldn’t happen again this time around.
Much of this year hasn’t gone to plan for Larson. He finally endured a tough Chili Bowl run, got rained out of completing The Double, chose to run the Indy 500 anyways and then sped on pit road late and ruined his chance to win. It took a playoff waiver for Larson to stay title-eligible and he fell one spot short of the regular season title largely due to his decision to skip the Coca-Cola 600 – though the Californian would be quick to point out some of the points he gave up in other races along the way.
In the end, I don’t think any of that will matter. This feels like the perfect time for Larson to rise up, secure a second Cup title and give everyone a new highlight to remember his 2024 season for.
If it isn’t Larson, the champion could easily be Bell. The Oklahoman excels on fast ovals and won at Phoenix in the spring. He’ll likely be penciled in as a favorite if he makes the final round. Reddick has a strong chance to make the Championship 4, but hasn’t finished better than third at Phoenix and has never ran better than 19th in the title race. He’ll have a hard time standing above this group.
Blaney is a Phoenix expert and parlayed that prowess into a 2023 title, which is the only reason he’s difficult to pick here. History suggests it’s brutally difficult to score repeat titles in the elimination playoff era. Picking against him is as much about that as it is favoring any of the other drivers.
Those are my picks. Here’s my full bracket:
What about you? Who do you think takes home the title this year? Feel free to let me know in the comments or on social media.
Best of the luck to the field. You might need a little to get through the rounds this year.
(Top Photo: Nigel Kinrade Photography)
