By Aaron Bearden
A look at the Cup Series playoff situation leaving the spring race at Richmond Raceway.
Race: Toyota Owners 400
Race No.: 7/36
Winner: Denny Hamlin
Stage Winner(s): Kyle Larson, Martin Truex Jr.
Winners
- Denny Hamlin: Right place, right time. Hamlin looked like he was going to come home third in the closing laps of Sunday’s race. But his pit crew gave him the lead with a rapid stop after the race was pushed to overtime and Hamlin delivered from there. Now he’s five playoff points richer and up to third in the regular season standings.
- Martin Truex Jr.: An untimely caution kept Truex from his first victory of the year. But the 2017 Cup champ still scored 50 points and a stage win to add a playoff point and increase his lead at the top of the regular season standings.
- Kyle Larson: It’s not often you can spin with two to go and still end up third. Larson’s strong top-five and stage win have him up to second in the standings with another playoff point in hand.
- Joey Logano: A second-place run is disappointing for a team looking to lock in its playoff spot. But after a torrid start to the year, Sunday’s 49-point outing has brought Logano within 14 points of the playoff cutline.
- RFK Racing: On days when they don’t have the best outright speed, teammates Brad Keselowski and Chris Buescher are great at mitigating their losses. The duo each snagged top-10s to keep themselves on the right side of the cutline leaving Richmond.
- Josh Berry: He still has a long way to climb and didn’t get the end result he wanted in 11th, but Berry scored more points (37) than anyone outside of the top-four finishers in Richmond. As a result he’s up to 23rd in the standings, 49 points below the bubble.
Losers
- Spire Motorsports: It was a rough day for Spire teammates Carson Hocevar (27th), Zane Smith (35th) and Corey LaJoie (36th). Smith was already essentially in a must-win position, but with Hocevar (-58 from the cutline) and LaJoie (-63) now mired deep in the standings, it’s likely going to be win-or-bust for anyone in this group if they hope to make a playoff appearance.
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and Michael McDowell: Things aren’t looking good for last year’s surprise playoff entrants. McDowell struggled in 26th and now sits 33 points below the cutline. Stenhouse was even worse off, finishing 33rd to leave the weekend 61 points out. It’s still early days, but these two are looking unlikely to repeat last year’s success without a victory.
- John Hunter Nemechek: All things considered, Nemechek’s return to Cup hasn’t been bad thus far. But a 25th-place run in Richmond wasn’t what he needed. Nemechek now sits seven points below the cutline after quietly sitting in the top-16 for most of the season’s early stretch.
- Ty Gibbs: A 16th-place run at a challenging Richmond oval isn’t awful for a Cup Series sophomore. But Gibbs has set the bar high early in 2024, so a subpar outing relative to his teammates is a small letdown. He’s still in good playoff position, but Gibbs has dropped from second to fourth in the standings after Sunday’s quiet run.
- Ryan Blaney: The same can be said for the defending champ, who now sits 41 points behind Truex in fifth after finishing a distant 19th. The No. 12 team has started its title defense well, but it suffered an off night in Richmond.
Playoff Grid
| Rank | Driver | Wins | Points | Gap |
| 3 | Denny Hamlin | 2 | 252 | 87 |
| 7 | William Byron | 2 | 215 | 59 |
| 2 | Kyle Larson | 1 | 256 | 107 |
| 6 | Christopher Bell | 1 | 219 | 69 |
| 15 (t) | Daniel Suarez | 1 | 163 | 7 |
| 1 | Martin Truex Jr. | 0 | 270 | 114 |
| 4 | Ty Gibbs | 0 | 236 | 80 |
| 5 | Ryan Blaney | 0 | 229 | 73 |
| 8 | Chase Elliott | 0 | 209 | 53 |
| 9 | Ross Chastain | 0 | 207 | 51 |
| 10 | Tyler Reddick | 0 | 199 | 43 |
| 11 | Alex Bowman | 0 | 193 | 37 |
| 12 | Chris Buescher | 0 | 185 | 29 |
| 13 | Kyle Busch | 0 | 167 | 11 |
| 14 | Bubba Wallace | 0 | 165 | 9 |
| 15 (t) | Brad Keselowski | 0 | 163 | 7 |
| Playoff Cutoff | ||||
| 17 | John Hunter Nemechek | 0 | 156 | -7 |
| 18 | Chase Briscoe | 0 | 150 | -13 |
| 19 | Joey Logano | 0 | 149 | -14 |
| 20 | Austin Cindric | 0 | 133 | -30 |
| 21 | Michael McDowell | 0 | 130 | -33 |
| 22 | Erik Jones | 0 | 129 | -34 |
| 23 | Josh Berry | 0 | 114 | -49 |
| 24 | Carson Hocevar | 0 | 105 | -58 |
| 25 (t) | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 0 | 102 | -61 |
| 25 (t) | Todd Gilliland | 0 | 102 | -61 |
| 27 | Corey LaJoie | 0 | 100 | -63 |
| 28 | Austin Dillon | 0 | 90 | -73 |
| 29 | Daniel Hemric | 0 | 86 | -77 |
| 30 (t) | Noah Gragson | 0 | 84 | -79 |
| 30 (t) | Ryan Preece | 0 | 84 | -79 |
| 32 | Justin Haley | 0 | 78 | -85 |
| 34 | Harrison Burton | 0 | 68 | -95 |
| 35 | Zane Smith | 0 | 61 | -102 |
Above the Cutline
(All But) Locked In
Winners: Denny Hamlin (2), William Byron (2), Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, Daniel Suarez
Drivers 60+ points up on the cutline: Martin Truex Jr., Ty Gibbs, Ryan Blaney
Safe (For Now)
Drivers 40-59 points above the cutline: Chase Elliott, Ross Chastain, Tyler Reddick
In the Danger Zone
Drivers within 40 points of the cutline: Alex Bowman, Chris Buescher, Kyle Busch, Bubba Wallace, Brad Keselowski
Below the Cutline
Within Reach
Drivers within 50 points of the bubble: John Hunter Nemechek, Chase Briscoe, Joey Logano, Austin Cindric, Michael McDowell, Erik Jones, Josh Berry
Looking For A Win
Drivers 51+ points below the cutline: Carson Hocevar, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Todd Gilliland, Corey LaJoie, Austin Dillon, Daniel Hemric, Noah Gragson, Ryan Preece, Justin Haley, Harrison Burton, Zane Smith
Race Results
- Denny Hamlin
- Joey Logano
- Kyle Larson
- Martin Truex Jr.
- Chase Elliott
- Christopher Bell
- William Byron
- Brad Keselowski
- Chris Buescher
- Tyler Reddick
- Josh Berry
- Noah Gragson
- Bubba Wallace
- Erik Jones
- Ross Chastain
- Ty Gibbs
- Alex Bowman
- Chase Briscoe
- Ryan Blaney
- Kyle Busch
- Todd Gilliland
- Daniel Suarez
- Austin Cindric
- Austin Dillon
- John Hunter Nemechek
- Michael McDowell
- Carson Hocevar
- Ryan Preece
- Ty Dillon
- Daniel Hemric
- Kaz Grala
- Justin Haley
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
- Harrison Burton
- Zane Smith
- Corey LaJoie
Stage Points
Results from Richmond
| Stage 1 | Stage 2 | ||||
| Pos. | Driver | Points | Pos. | Driver | Points |
| 1 | Kyle Larson | 10 (+ 1 Playoff Point) | 1 | Martin Truex Jr. | 10 (+ 1 Playoff Point) |
| 2 | Bubba Wallace | 9 | 2 | Josh Berry | 9 |
| 3 | Alex Bowman | 8 | 3 | Joey Logano | 8 |
| 4 | Martin Truex Jr. | 7 | 4 | Kyle Larson | 7 |
| 5 | Joey Logano | 6 | 5 | Denny Hamlin | 6 |
| 6 | Todd Gilliland | 5 | 6 | Christopher Bell | 5 |
| 7 | Chase Elliott | 4 | 7 | Chris Buescher | 4 |
| 8 | Ross Chastain | 3 | 8 | Bubba Wallace | 3 |
| 9 | Josh Berry | 2 | 9 | William Byron | 2 |
| 10 | Ryan Preece | 1 | 10 | Tyler Reddick | 1 |
Total Stage Points
| Rank | Driver | Points | Wins |
| 1 | Kyle Larson | 74 | 3 |
| 2 | Martin Truex Jr. | 69 | 1 |
| 3 | Ryan Blaney | 56 | 1 |
| 4 | Denny Hamlin | 54 | 1 |
| 5 | Tyler Reddick | 46 | 1 |
| 6 | Ty Gibbs | 37 | 2 |
| 7 | William Byron | 34 | 0 |
| 8 | Christopher Bell | 33 | 2 |
| 9 | Chase Elliott | 30 | 1 |
| 10 | Austin Cindric | 28 | 1 |
| 11 | Brad Keselowski | 27 | 0 |
| 12 (t) | Daniel Suarez | 25 | 0 |
| 12 (t) | Kyle Busch | 25 | 0 |
| 14 (t) | Bubba Wallace | 24 | 0 |
| 14 (t) | Joey Logano | 24 | 0 |
| 16 | Ross Chastain | 23 | 0 |
| 17 | Michael McDowell | 21 | 1 |
| 18 (t) | Alex Bowman | 18 | 0 |
| 18 (t) | Todd Gilliland | 18 | 0 |
| 20 | John H. Nemechek | 17 | 0 |
| 21 (t) | Chris Buescher | 14 | 0 |
| 21 (t) | Josh Berry | 14 | 0 |
| 23 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 12 | 0 |
| 24 | Ryan Preece | 11 | 0 |
| 25 | Austin Dillon | 10 | 0 |
| 26 | Erik Jones | 8 | 0 |
| 27 (t) | Chase Briscoe | 4 | 0 |
| 27 (t) | Corey LaJoie | 4 | 0 |
| 29 (t) | Harrison Burton | 3 | 0 |
| 29 (t) | Noah Gragson | 3 | 0 |
| 31 | Daniel Hemric | 2 | 0 |
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(Top photo credit: Nigel Kinrade Photography)
