By Aaron Bearden
A look at the Cup Series playoff situation leaving Dover Motor Speedway.
Race: Würth 400
Race No.: 11/36
Winner: Denny Hamlin
Stage Winner(s): Martin Truex Jr., Kyle Larson
Winners
- Denny Hamlin: It’s hard to tell if this will be ‘the year’ in comparison to any others, but Hamlin is doing well to give himself a smooth path to the Championship 4. The Virginian’s third win of the season tied him with William Byron for the most in the series and pushed Hamlin up to fourth in points.
- Kyle Larson and Martin Truex Jr.: What this duo lacks in wins – one combined, earned by Larson – it makes up for with consistency. Larson has 15 points on Truex at the top of the standings. Truex is another 18 point up on Chase Elliott in second. The duo also scored stage wins in Dover to secure a playoff point apiece. Not bad.
- Kyle Busch: The No. 8 team needed that one. Busch drove a consistent race to earn a top-five and 42 points. As a result, the two-time champ is up to 11th in the standings and 12 points above the cutline.
- Ryan Blaney and Alex Bowman: Neither driver contended for the win, but Blaney and Bowman each earned stage points and top-10s to help themselves in the standings. Blaney is 79 points above the cutline and Ford’s only safe bet, while Bowman has a 39-point edge in a tie for ninth with Ross Chastain.
Losers
- Bubba Wallace, William Byron and Christopher Bell: A final stage crash knocked this trio out of the race, leaving them 32nd through 34th in the final rundown. Wallace is the worst off of the trio, down two points on the cutline despite sitting 15th in points. Byron and Bell have wins, but Byron’s lost ground on the regular season title race and Bell’s 41 points away from the top 10 and any regular season bonus points.
- Brad Keselowski: A 30th-place finish served as a big blow to Keselowski in the standings, dropping him to 16th and a four-point deficit on the playoff cutline. This isn’t an issue right now, but as Keselowski lurks around the bubble, his risk of missing the playoffs slowly grows.
- Erik Jones: Not that there was anything he could do about it, but Jones missing Sunday’s race with a back injury left him 84 points below the bubble in 22nd. Looks like it’ll be a win-or-bust year for Legacy Motor Club’s playoff ambitions.
- Anyone below 19th: It’s hard to believe considering we’re just 11 races into the year, but the dividing line between playoff contenders on points and everyone else is already firmly established. Only one winless driver is within a full race’s points of 16th-place Keselowski (Austin Cindric, who sits 47 points behind him). So for the group from 19th (Cindric) through 35th (Zane Smith), any week without a win pushes them closer to playoff elimination.
Playoff Grid
| Rank | Driver | Wins | Points | Gap |
| 4 | Denny Hamlin | 3 | 361 | 95 |
| 6 | William Byron | 3 | 348 | 85 |
| 1 | Kyle Larson | 1 | 410 | 196 |
| 3 | Chase Elliott | 1 | 377 | 116 |
| 5 | Tyler Reddick | 1 | 354 | 91 |
| 17 | Christopher Bell | 1 | 261 | -2 |
| 18 | Daniel Suarez | 1 | 258 | -5 |
| 2 | Martin Truex Jr. | 0 | 395 | 132 |
| 7 | Ryan Blaney | 0 | 342 | 79 |
| 8 | Ty Gibbs | 0 | 323 | 60 |
| 9 (t) | Alex Bowman | 0 | 302 | 39 |
| 9 (t) | Ross Chastain | 0 | 302 | 39 |
| 11 | Kyle Busch | 0 | 275 | 12 |
| 12 | Chase Briscoe | 0 | 274 | 11 |
| 13 | Joey Logano | 0 | 266 | 3 |
| 14 | Chris Buescher | 0 | 265 | 2 |
| Playoff Cutoff | ||||
| 15 | Bubba Wallace | 0 | 263 | -2 |
| 16 | Brad Keselowski | 0 | 261 | -4 |
| 19 | Austin Cindric | 0 | 214 | -51 |
| 20 | Carson Hocevar | 0 | 187 | -78 |
| 21 | Noah Gragson | 0 | 185 | -80 |
| 22 (t) | John H. Nemechek | 0 | 181 | -84 |
| 22 (t) | Erik Jones | 0 | 181 | -84 |
| 24 | Josh Berry | 0 | 174 | -91 |
| 25 | Daniel Hemric | 0 | 168 | -97 |
| 26 | Todd Gilliland | 0 | 167 | -98 |
| 27 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 0 | 165 | -100 |
| 28 | Ryan Preece | 0 | 163 | -102 |
| 29 | Michael McDowell | 0 | 158 | -107 |
| 30 | Corey LaJoie | 0 | 155 | -110 |
| 31 | Austin Dillon | 0 | 146 | -119 |
| 32 | Harrison Burton | 0 | 128 | -137 |
| 33 | Justin Haley | 0 | 115 | -150 |
| 35 | Zane Smith | 0 | 99 | -166 |
Above the Cutline
(All But) Locked In
Winners: Denny Hamlin (3), William Byron (3), Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, Tyler Reddick, Christopher Bell, Daniel Suarez
Drivers 60+ points up on the cutline: Martin Truex Jr., Ryan Blaney, Ty Gibbs
Safe (For Now)
Drivers 40-59 points above the cutline:
In the Danger Zone
Drivers within 40 points of the cutline: Alex Bowman, Ross Chastain, Kyle Busch, Chase Briscoe, Joey Logano, Chris Buescher
Below the Cutline
Within Reach
Drivers within 50 points of the bubble: Bubba Wallace, Brad Keselowski
Looking For A Win
Drivers 51+ points below the cutline: Austin Cindric, Carson Hocevar, Noah Gragson, John Hunter Nemechek, Erik Jones, Josh Berry, Daniel Hemric, Todd Gilliland, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Ryan Preece, Michael McDowell, Corey LaJoie, Austin Dillon, Harrison Burton, Justin Haley, Zane Smith
Race Results
- Denny Hamlin
- Kyle Larson
- Martin Truex Jr.
- Kyle Busch
- Chase Elliott
- Noah Gragson
- Ryan Blaney
- Alex Bowman
- Daniel Hemric
- Ty Gibbs
- Tyler Reddick
- Ross Chastain
- AJ Allmendinger
- Josh Berry
- Austin Cindric
- Joey Logano
- Chris Buescher
- Daniel Suarez
- Chase Briscoe
- John Hunter Nemechek
- Corey LaJoie
- Carson Hocevar
- Justin Haley
- Zane Smith
- Corey Heim
- Harrison Burton
- Austin Dillon
- Jimmie Johnson
- Kaz Grala
- Brad Keselowski
- Todd Gilliland
- Bubba Wallace
- William Byron
- Christopher Bell
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
- Michael McDowell
- Ryan Preece
Stage Points
Results from Dover
| Stage 1 | Stage 2 | ||||
| Pos. | Driver | Points | Pos. | Driver | Points |
| 1 | Martin Truex Jr. | 10 (+ 1 Playoff Point) | 1 | Kyle Larson | 10 (+ 1 Playoff Point) |
| 2 | William Byron | 9 | 2 | Alex Bowman | 9 |
| 3 | Tyler Reddick | 8 | 3 | Denny Hamlin | 8 |
| 4 | Ryan Blaney | 7 | 4 | Martin Truex Jr. | 7 |
| 5 | Kyle Larson | 6 | 5 | Chase Elliott | 6 |
| 6 | Denny Hamlin | 5 | 6 | Kyle Busch | 5 |
| 7 | Kyle Busch | 4 | 7 | Tyler Reddick | 4 |
| 8 | Alex Bowman | 3 | 8 | Ryan Blaney | 3 |
| 9 | Chase Elliott | 2 | 9 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 2 |
| 10 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 1 | 10 | Bubba Wallace | 1 |
Total Stage Points
| Rank | Driver | Points | Wins |
| 1 | Kyle Larson | 126 | 6 |
| 2 | Martin Truex Jr. | 92 | 2 |
| 3 | Denny Hamlin | 89 | 2 |
| 4 | Ryan Blaney | 86 | 1 |
| 5 | Tyler Reddick | 72 | 1 |
| 6 | Chase Elliott | 70 | 1 |
| 7 | William Byron | 59 | 0 |
| 8 | Bubba Wallace | 53 | 0 |
| 9 | Austin Cindric | 47 | 2 |
| 10 | Christopher Bell | 46 | 2 |
| 11 | Joey Logano | 45 | 1 |
| 12 (t) | Kyle Busch | 41 | 0 |
| 12 (t) | Ross Chastain | 41 | 1 |
| 14 | Ty Gibbs | 40 | 2 |
| 15 | Alex Bowman | 36 | 0 |
| 16 | Brad Keselowski | 35 | 0 |
| 17 | Chase Briscoe | 27 | 0 |
| 18 | Daniel Suarez | 25 | 0 |
| 19 | Michael McDowell | 24 | 1 |
| 20 (t) | Chris Buescher | 18 | 0 |
| 20 (t) | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 18 | 0 |
| 20 (t) | Todd Gilliland | 18 | 0 |
| 23 (t) | Austin Dillon | 17 | 0 |
| 23 (t) | John H. Nemechek | 17 | 0 |
| 23 (t) | Josh Berry | 17 | 0 |
| 26 | Erik Jones | 15 | 0 |
| 27 | Ryan Preece | 13 | 0 |
| 28 | Harrison Burton | 12 | 0 |
| 29 | Corey LaJoie | 4 | 0 |
| 30 | Noah Gragson | 3 | 0 |
| 31 | Daniel Hemric | 2 | 0 |
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(Top photo credit: Nigel Kinrade Photography)
