(Photo: Nigel Kinrade Photography)
By Aaron Bearden

Main Takeaway

With one race left in the regular season, the battle for the final playoff spot has been set. 

Numerous drivers entered Sunday’s race at Watkins Glen International looking to secure the spot in the postseason. Most needed a win. Many saw the Glen as the last place they could control their own destiny. A few were dependent on making gains (or holding steady) in the point standings. 

In the end, most left New York in a similar position to the one they’d entered. But there were a couple key exceptions. 

First off: Fans of Brad Keselowski and Kevin Harvick, take a deep breath. Your drivers are safe. 

Given their hefty point advantages on the bubble, the two winless ex-champions needed only to avoid a new winner cropping up to secure their spots in the postseason. William Byron claiming his fifth win of the year served that cause perfectly, locking the duo into the Field of 16. 

That leaves just one spot left to be decided – either on points or with a new winner at Daytona International Speedway. 

Should no new winner crop up, that spot is likely to go to Bubba Wallace. The 23XI Racing driver went into the past two weeks hoping to minimize his points loss, knowing road course races are his weakness. Indianapolis saw his cushion cut in half, but Wallace scored the seventh-most points and finished 12th to leave the Glen with a comfortable advantage. 

Wallace holds a 32-point edge on Ty Gibbs for the last playoff spot entering Daytona. If he can score 24 points, only a new winner can keep Wallace from his first playoff appearance as a driver. He ran in the owners championship playoffs last year in place of the injured Kurt Busch; coincidentally, Hendrick Motorsports’ No. 9 team is likely to keep Wallace’s No. 23 from making the owners playoffs this year. 

For Gibbs, a strong fifth-place run at Watkins Glen opened up a second possible path to the postseason. The rookie gained 17 points on Wallace to give himself a small chance at sneaking into the playoffs on points. 

The true disappointment of the weekend came for Daniel Suarez and the No. 99 Trackhouse Racing team. After running top-five and coming one slow pit stop from a potential win in Indianapolis, Suarez entered Watkins Glen with a closable playoff gap and high hopes for a win. But an early spin out of the bus stop chicane trapped the Mexican star deep in the field. Suarez had to settle for 22nd at race’s end. He enters Daytona 43 points out of the playoffs, essentially in a must-win position. 

For everyone else below the cutline, it’s win or bust. AJ Allmendinger nearly accomplished it for the second time at Watkins Glen, but stalled out in fourth at a track where passing proved difficult. Gibbs ran as high as third, but cycled out behind Allmendinger in fifth after a mid-race caution slightly shuffled the order. 

The cause of that caution? Chase Elliott. The two-time Watkins Glen winner rose from 15th to seventh by short-pitting, but a miscalculation led to him running out of fuel in the final stage, stalling in the bus stop to bring out the day’s only yellow. 

Elliott wound up 32nd at race’s end. Now he and the rest of the drivers below Suarez in the standings will have to rest their playoff hopes on a Hail Mary at the World Center of Speed. 

“To show up there and be in a must-win situation is like going to Vegas and having to hit the nearest slot machine for the jackpot,” Elliott said of Daytona. “That’s just silly.”

I guess it’s time to get silly, then.

Good, Bad and Ugly

Good: Byron solves road course woes

William Byron’s had an emergent 2023 campaign, scoring a series-leading five victories in the opening 25 races of the Cup Series season. 

Few were more impressive – or important – than Sunday at Watkins Glen International. 

Byron had never led a lap at the New York facility entering the Go Bowling at the Glen. He was rarely a frontrunner in any road course event, having scored just one top-five in 25 Cup starts on road and street circuits. 

But there he was Sunday, putting together a complete race to hold off a fleet of strong contenders. The North Carolinian led 66 of 90 laps and won by 2.632s, becoming the third different Hendrick Motorsports driver to win in what’s been a team sweep at the track since 2018. 

“Just a huge credit to the race team behind me,” Byron said of the result. “I want to thank Max Papis. My first road course win and we worked years and years for this. Thanks to all the guys on the team. I did a lot of laps on iRacing this week; got a new simulator at home. It’s a great win. It shows when we’re at our best we can perform like this.’’

The victory came at a key time for the No. 24 team. Byron started the year as a championship favorite, but had only earned one top-10 in the preceding seven races – his Atlanta Motor Speedway win. 

If momentum is real, his team didn’t have it. And they needed it. 

Sunday’s result will go a long way toward righting the ship. In the playoff point era, 10 of the 11 prior drivers with five-win seasons have gone on to make the Championship 4. The only one who didn’t – Kevin Harvick in 2020 – narrowly missed advancement in the Round of 8 and went on to finish fifth.

With one race left before the playoffs, Sunday’s win was a reminder to Byron and his team that they can keep that streak of success rolling this fall. 

“We seem to go through that summer slump in July and August and for some reason we just can’t put the races together,” Byron said. “I think it’s the race tracks themselves. 

“This weekend, we came with a good mindset and focused on getting ready for the postseason. We’ve had fast cars just haven’t executed races, but today was flawless.” 

 

Bad: Costly mistakes

In a race where track position was paramount to success, a few top teams cost themselves a chance to contend with mistakes. 

Key among them was Indianapolis winner Michael McDowell. A week removed from his playoff-clinching win, the Front Row Motorsports driver snatched the lead early and was pacing the field once again. 

That is, until the opening round of pit stops. McDowell emerged behind a short-pitting Byron, but that mattered little when he was issued a drive-through penalty for driving through too many pit boxes. McDowell fell to 15th after serving the penalty, but steadily rebounded to get back into the top-10. Then things took another turn for the worse – a penalty for crew members over the wall too soon on the next stop sent McDowell back to pit road. 

Even that wasn’t the end of the pain, though. With 14 laps remaining McDowell’s Ford suddenly lost power. He idled the car to his pit stall, where it was later pushed to the garage. He would be the race’s only DNF in 36th, pushing him to 17th in points. Thankfully for his team, McDowell is locked into the playoffs with the Indy win. 

The two-time defending winner also saw his race thrown away on pit road. Kyle Larson had risen inside of the top-five in the event’s middle stages when a speeding penalty trapped him deep in the field. 

He never recovered. In fact, the 2021 Cup champ was relegated to 26th after a costly last-lap run with Austin Dillon. The duo made contact twice while battling for 19th in the final two corners, resulting in a pair of spins that relegated them to 26th (Larson) and 31st (Dillon). 

Ugly: No passes to be found

If you tuned in for the final stage of Sunday’s race hoping to see battles up front, you were sorely disappointed. 

As noted by Frontstretch’s Dalton Hopkins on Twitter, there were no passes among the top-11 drivers in the final 16 laps of Sunday’s race. The closing stages brought drama with cars running close together, but the inability of anyone to close up on the car ahead of them led to a processional affair outside of the race’s two restarts.

There were moments of intrigue with pit strategy early on. But once the strategies were set, it was a drama-free cruise to the checkered flag. 

Good: Make it quick

If Sunday’s race had to be processional, at least it ended quickly. 

Historically fast, in fact. 

For the first time in NASCAR’s modern era, a Cup Series race reached the full distance in under two hours. Even with a brief slowdown for Elliott’s caution, Sunday’s Go Bowling at the Glen was done in 1 hour, 58 minutes. 

All told, it was the fastest complete Cup race since 1971. 

Good: All there to race for

All eyes are on the playoff bubble heading into Saturday’s regular season finale at Daytona. But there’s plenty to chase for most of the playoff field. 

Martin Truex Jr. salvaged a sixth-place finish from a difficult day at Watkins Glen to keep a firm hold on his regular season championship lead. But Denny Hamlin earned stage points and finished second to close within 39 points of Truex for the title and the 15 playoff points that come with it. Expect Hamlin to be aggressive early and try to chase Truex down in the standings this weekend. 

A tighter battle can be found in the back half of the top-10. Keselowski currently sits sixth with 697 points – a result that would give him five extra playoff points if he can hold it. But just 14 points back is 12th-place Tyler Reddick (683 points), who wouldn’t get any bonus points if the regular season ended today. 

Wedged between the duo are Chris Buescher (695), Ross Chastain (695), Ryan Blaney (694), Harvick (693) and Kyle Busch (688). Collectively there are 15 playoff points up for grabs between the seven drivers based on their regular season points result, with the bottom two in the group failing to earn any bonus points. 

In a playoff system where a single point can be the difference between advancement and elimination in a round, each of these drivers has incentive to eschew safe strategies and chase maximum points in Daytona. 

Be prepared for an eventful regular season finale – even from drivers already locked into the postseason. 

Notes

  • Credit to Mike Rockenfeller. The Sports car ace and Garage 56 participant was steady and efficient in his second start for Legacy Motor Club. He dodged Larson and Dillon after their final-lap melee to come home 19th. 
  • Todd Gilliland remains overshadowed by his playoff-contending teammate, but the Front Row Motorsports prospect showed his worth again Sunday. Gilliland was a quiet 11th in another strong run for his No. 38 team. Nine of his 13 career top-15s have come during this season. 
  • It was a difficult weekend for Ford at Watkins Glen. Blue Oval drivers failed to finish higher than seventh after their frontrunner (McDowell) fell by the wayside. The highest-finishing Ford? Who else but their recent back-to-back winner, Buescher. 
  • That’s not atypical, of course. Only three of the 26 Cup races dating back to 1997 have been won by Ford drivers. The only Ford winners in the stretch: Marcos Ambrose (2011, 2012) and Joey Logano (2015) 
  • Sunday’s race was particularly dominant up front, but the trend of top qualifiers winning at the Glen is the rule, not the exception. Thirteen of the past 14 winners at the track have started sixth or better. Each of the past six victories have come from the front two starting rows. 
  • Hendrick Motorsports has combined to claim five-straight wins at Watkins Glen. Elliott (2018-19) and Larson (2020-21) each won twice in a row. Now Byron’s won once. Can he keep the trend alive next year? 

Race Results

  1. William Byron
  2. Denny Hamlin
  3. Christopher Bell
  4. AJ Allmendinger
  5. Ty Gibbs
  6. Martin Truex Jr.
  7. Chris Buescher
  8. Tyler Reddick
  9. Ryan Blaney
  10. Joey Logano
  11. Todd Gilliland
  12. Bubba Wallace
  13. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
  14. Kyle Busch
  15. Brad Keselowski
  16. Austin Cindric
  17. Ryan Preece
  18. Ross Chastain
  19. Mike Rockenfeller
  20. Corey LaJoie
  21. Kevin Harvick
  22. Daniel Suarez
  23. Alex Bowman
  24. Justin Haley
  25. Andy Lally
  26. Kyle Larson
  27. Josh Bilicki
  28. Cole Custer
  29. Erik Jones
  30. Aric Almirola
  31. Austin Dillon
  32. Chase Elliott
  33. Harrison Burton
  34. Ty Dillon
  35. Chase Briscoe
  36. Michael McDowell 

Stage 1

  1. Michael McDowell
  2. William Byron
  3. Denny Hamlin
  4. Ty Gibbs
  5. AJ Allmendinger
  6. Kyle Larson
  7. Christopher Bell
  8. Bubba Wallace
  9. Kyle Busch
  10. Tyler Reddick

Stage 2

  1. William Byron
  2. Denny Hamlin
  3. Ty Gibbs
  4. Kyle Larson
  5. AJ Allmendinger
  6. Christopher Bell
  7. Chase Elliott
  8. Kyle Busch
  9. Bubba Wallace
  10. Austin Dillon 

Playoff Picture

With no new winner on Sunday, 15 of the 16 drivers competing for a championship this fall have been confirmed. Brad Keselowski and Kevin Harvick are a lock on points, leaving one spot to be filled by either Bubba Wallace, Ty Gibbs, Daniel Suarez or a surprise winner at Daytona next weekend. 

In With A Win

  • William Byron (5)
  • Martin Truex Jr. (3)
  • Kyle Busch (3)
  • Denny Hamlin (2)
  • Kyle Larson (2)
  • Chris Buescher (2) 
  • Ross Chastain
  • Christopher Bell
  • Ryan Blaney
  • Joey Logano
  • Tyler Reddick
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 
  • Michael McDowell

Locked In On Points

  • Brad Keselowski
  • Kevin Harvick

Above the Cut

  • Bubba Wallace (+32)

Within Reach

  • Ty Gibbs (-32)
  • Daniel Suarez (-43)

Need to Win

  • AJ Allmendinger
  • Alex Bowman
  • Chase Elliott
  • Austin Cindric
  • Justin Haley
  • Ryan Preece
  • Aric Almirola
  • Todd Gilliland
  • Corey LaJoie
  • Erik Jones
  • Austin Dillon
  • Harrison Burton
  • Chase Briscoe
  • Ty Dillon 

Next Race: Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona International Speedway (Aug. 26 @ 7:00 p.m. ET, NBC/MRN

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NASCAR Cup Series Watkins Glen International