It’s time to crown NASCAR champions at Phoenix Raceway.
A dozen drivers will have a chance to score NASCAR titles this weekend. Each of NASCAR’s three national tours has a Championship 4, with the highest finisher in their respective races claiming the championship for their series.
No points. Stage results won’t be relevant. Only the running order at the checkered flag matters.
So… Who’ll get the job done?
Here are the title contenders and my picks to win in each series.
Cup Series
Contenders
Kyle Larson
Team: Hendrick Motorsports
Car: No. 5 Chevrolet
Cup Seasons: 10
Best Points Finish: Champion (2021)
Last Year’s Points Finish: Seventh
Next-Gen Finishes at Phoenix: 34th (Spring ’22), Ninth (Fall ’22), Fourth (Spring ’23)
How He Got Here: With another strong, Larson-like year for Hendrick Motorsports. The Californian has led 1127 laps and won four times, helping him overcome eight DNFs to contend for a title. The last of those wins came in the Round of 8 opener at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, securing Yung Money’s place in the Championship 4.
Phoenix Outlook: Larson figures to be the championship favorite at Phoenix. He’s the only prior champion, led the most laps of any driver and dominated a chunk of the track’s spring race. The only question is one of consistency – Larson’s been an all-or-nothing driver this year, showcased by his Vegas win and spectacular pit barrel crash in Homestead during the Round of 8. Which version of the Californian will show up in Phoenix?
Ryan Blaney
Team: Team Penske
Car: No. 12 Ford
Cup Seasons: Eight
Best Points Finish: Seventh (2019, ’21)
Last Year’s Points Finish: Eighth
Next-Gen Finishes at Phoenix: Fourth (Spring ’22), Second (Fall ’22), Second (Spring ’23)
How He Got Here: By getting hot at the right time. Blaney and Team Penske overall were quiet through the spring and summer, the No. 12’s only win coming in the Coca-Cola 600. But after surviving a subpar Round of 16, Blaney earned wins in both the Round of 12 and Round of 8 to secure his first Championship 4 berth.
Phoenix Outlook: Remember back when Homestead was the finale and the consensus was that Larson would be a favorite if he could get there? The same could be said of Blaney at Phoenix. The Arizona oval is one of Blaney’s best tracks – particularly in the Next Gen era, where he has a 2.67 average finish. None of those results were wins, but it’s clear that the 12 team should be frontrunners this weekend.
Christopher Bell
Team: Joe Gibbs Racing
Car: No. 20 Toyota
Cup Seasons: Four
Best Points Finish: Third (2022)
Last Year’s Points Finish: Third
Next-Gen Finishes at Phoenix: 26th (Spring ’22), 10th (Fall ’22), Sixth (Spring ’23)
How He Got Here: With consistency and a well-timed win. Fresh off his first Championship 4 appearance in 2022, Bell won at Bristol Dirt in the spring to secure a playoff berth. He then put together a consistent year, staying inside of the top-four in points for 19-straight weeks and winning at Homstead-Miami Speedway in the Round of 8 to clinch another title opportunity.
Phoenix Outlook: This one’s tricky. Bell has never led a lap at Phoenix and faded when it counted in his first shot at the track last year. But the Oklahoman is getting better each year, has Toyota’s full attention and ran better at Phoenix in the spring. A bit better showing this time around and he’ll be right in the mix.
William Byron
Team: Hendrick Motorsports
Car: No. 24. Chevrolet
Cup Seasons: Six
Best Points Finish: Sixth (2022)
Last Year’s Points Finish: Sixth
Next-Gen Finishes at Phoenix: 18th (Spring ’22), Sixth (Fall ’22), First (Spring ’23)
How He Got Here: With poise and playoff points. Byron has a Cup-best six wins this year and the boatload of playoff points that came with them. Those ended up coming in handy, helping the 25-year-old survive a brutal day in Martinsville Speedway to eke out the lone Championship 4 spot on points over Denny Hamlin.
Phoenix Outlook: It’s weird to say this for the season’s winningest driver, particularly when he won at this very track in the spring, but Byron is flying under the radar heading into the weekend. His No. 24 team has been methodical in their execution, but looked off in the Round of 8. But Byron has won a championship under a similar format in the Xfinity Series and his team’s proven they know how to win. Don’t be surprised if they’re right in the mix.
My Pick: Blaney
I picked Blaney to win the title back in February and I’m sticking with it here. I could say it’s because he has the hot hand, but truthfully I feel Phoenix as the finale is a difference-maker here. Blaney’s shown consistent pace at the track and seemingly could have won the finale last year. There’s little reason to think the No. 12 won’t be up front again this weekend.
Larson’s bad fast and showed pace at Phoenix in the spring, but his No. 5 team’s been prone to chaos this year. Sweeping the races at a track is intensely difficult, so it’s hard to bet on Byron to win again. Bell continues to improve, but his No. 20 team hasn’t quite been in the mix at Phoenix.
The circumstances line up for Blaney to strike and secure his first Cup title.
Xfinity Series
Contenders
Cole Custer
Team: Stewart-Haas Racing
Car: No. 00 Ford
Xfinity Seasons: Four
Best Points Finish: Second (2018, ’19)
Last Year’s Points Finish: 25th (Cup Series)
Average Finish at Phoenix: 8.9 (Seven starts)
How He Got Here: Quietly. What was meant to be a redemptive, confidence-restoring year for Custer after stepping down from the Cup Series has proven challenging. The Californian’s only wins have came at Portland International Raceway and in the rain-shortened Chicago street race. But Custer’s suffered only two DNFs and dodged most chaos to quietly creep through the playoffs on points.
Phoenix Outlook: Can the No. 00 team win on an oval? Custer’s history (10 oval wins) suggests so, but they’ve yet to pull it off so far this year. Custer’s too talented and experienced to be written off, but it’ll take a fast Ford to get the job done. If there’s good news, it’s that Custer will get priority – he’s the only title contender SHR has this weekend.
Sam Mayer
Team: JR Motorsports
Car: No. 1 Chevrolet
Xfinity Seasons: Two
Best Points Finish: Seventh (2022)
Last Year’s Points Finish: Seventh
Average Finish at Phoenix: 20.0 (Four starts)
How He Got Here: By figuring things out. The 20-year-old Mayer took longer than he might have hoped to acclimate himself to Xfinity Series competition. But once he finally found victory lane at Road America in July, the wins began to pour in. Four victories in 13 races – including a clutch Charlotte Roval win while facing elimination – carried the Wisconsinite through the playoffs and into the Championship 4.
Phoenix Outlook: This one could be rough. Mayer is surging at the right time and is easily the biggest wild card of this title race, but he’s inexperienced in these situations and has yet to figure Phoenix out. His best finish at the track was 11th in the spring. It’s going to take more than that to be in the mix on Saturday.
Justin Allgaier
Team: JR Motorsports
Car: No. 7 Chevrolet
Xfinity Seasons: 13
Best Points Finish: Second (2020,)
Last Year’s Points Finish: Third
Average Finish at Phoenix: 9.5 (26 starts)
How He Got Here: By winning when it counts. Allgaier was a consistent contender despite only winning over in the opening 23 races of the year. Things finally started to turn the Illinoisan’s way in the late summer, leading to three additional wins in the past nine weeks – including one apiece in the Rounds of 12 and 8 to lock Allgaier into the Phoenix finale.
Phoenix Outlook: Strong. Allgaier has two wins and nine top-fives in 26 Phoenix starts. He’s in the Championship 4 for the sixth time, meaning the veteran has plenty of experience on this stage. He should have a quick car from JR Motorsports and was in contention in the spring Phoenix race before a late crash ruined his day. Expect Allgaier to be in the title conversation late.
John Hunter Nemechek
Team: Joe Gibbs Racing
Car: No. 20 Toyota
Xfinity Seasons: One
Best Points Finish: Seventh (2019)
Last Year’s Point Finish: Fifth (Craftsman Truck Series)
Average Finish at Phoenix: 6.5 (Six starts)
How He Got Here: Wins. Many, many wins. Seven of them, in fact. Similar to Ty Gibbs’ seven-win title run in 2022, Nemechek’s frequented victory lane this year. He failed to win in the Round of 8, but had such a healthy playoff point cushion that it didn’t matter.
Phoenix Outlook: Based on last year, you’d have to say Nemechek is a favorite. He has Joe Gibbs Racing’s sole focus as a title contender, and the team proved last year that it can deliver a dominant car for the desert track. There’s a good chance that Nemechek will be Gibbs’ third different Xfinity Series champion in as many years.
My Pick: Allgaier
The law of averages has to catch up at some point, right? Allgaier is fast every year, usually makes the Championship 4 and is in contention throughout the final weekend. But like Elliott Sadler before him, the veteran hasn’t been able to pull off the big final win to lock up an Xfinity Series title.
In his sixth try, I think Allgaier will finally get the job done. That’ll bring JR Motorsports its first champion since Tyler Reddick surprised the field at Homestead in 2018.
Craftsman Truck Series
Contenders
Corey Heim
Team: TRICON Garage
Truck: No. 11 Toyota
Truck Seasons: None
Best Points Finish: N/A
Last Year’s Points Finish: N/A
Average Finish at Phoenix: 7.0 (One start)
How He Got Here: With a breakout year. Heim’s won three times, earned top-10s in 90.5% of all races and suffered only one DNF. He claimed the regular season title despite missing a race and breezed through the playoffs. Now the Georgian heads to Phoenix as the favorite to score his first NASCAR title.
Phoenix Outlook: Based on his pace this year, Heim has to be the championship favorite. He only finished seventh in his first trip to Phoenix, but has improved since then and looks like a threat to win nearly every week. This feels like his title to lose.
Grant Enfinger
Team: GMS Racing
Truck: No. 23 Chevrolet
Truck Seasons: Seven
Best Points Finish: Fourth (2020)
Last Year’s Points Finish: Seventh
Average Finish at Phoenix: 10.8 (Six starts)
How He Got Here: With a return to form. The 38-year-old veteran posted the worst average finish of his full-time Truck Series career and won just once from 2021 through 2022, but bounced with with three wins and consistency this year. Enfinger has yet to suffer a DNF and finished inside of the top-15 in 16 of the 17 races entering Phoenix. That was enough to carry him through a tumultuous playoff and into his second Championship 4 appearance.
Phoenix Outlook: Well… He’s got a chance. Enfinger’s stats at Phoenix aren’t anything special. He’s led 12 laps, has a pair of top-fives and an extra top-19 in six runs at the track. The Alabamian has the experience advantage on his rivals, but it remains to be seen whether he’ll have what he needs to mount a championship charge on Friday night.
Carson Hocevar
Team: Niece Motorsports
Truck: No. 42 Chevrolet
Truck Seasons: Three
Best Points Finish: 10th (2021, ’22)
Last Year’s Points Finish: 10th
Average Finish at Phoenix: 18.5 (Four starts)
How He Got Here: By cleaning up the mistakes. The promise shown by Hocevar in recent years finally translated to victories in his third season. While he struggled with crashes and other issues in the spring, Hocevar earned three wins, 10 top-fives and finished no worse than 12th in the final 14 races heading up to Phoenix to establish himself as a genuine title contender.
Phoenix Outlook: Hocevar’s had the pace lately, but he and the No. 42 team will need to figure out Phoenix to be contenders. In four starts at the track, Hocevar’s finished no better than ninth. But the Michigan native’s shown growth in his race craft and pace this year, so expect him to run better in his final start before leaping to the Cup Series.
Ben Rhodes
Team: ThorSport Racing
Truck: No. 99 Ford
Truck Seasons: Eight
Best Points Finish: Champion (2021)
Last Year’s Points Finish: Second
Average Finish at Phoenix: 8.4 (Eight starts)
How He Got Here: By minimizing mistakes and racking up points. Rhodes and ThorSport haven’t had race-winning pace this year, but the Kentuckian has 13 top-10s and just one DNF. He earned a lone win at Charlotte Motor Speedway in May, survived a tough Round of 10 and advanced to the Championship 4 with a pair of runner-up runs to end the Round of 8.
Phoenix Outlook: Rhodes has been quiet for much of the year, but that doesn’t mean you can sleep on him at Phoenix. The Truck Series vet has managed to creep into the Championship 4 for three-straight years, while factoring heavily into the title race in the first two. He won the title with a third-place run in 2021 and finished second last year. There’s no reason his No. 99 team can’t perform similarly this time around.
My Pick: Heim
The Truck Series tends to be the least-predictable finale of the three national series, but this year it has the biggest favorite. Heim has been a step above the rest of the field for the majority of the year. There’s a real chance it could all go wrong this weekend – look at Nemechek’s 2021 finale. But if things go to plan, it’s hard to imagine the No. 11 team being beaten.
That said, any of the four could get the job done. Enfinger’s a veteran that can win anywhere. Hocevar’s come on strong in the second half of the year. Rhodes has been in this position before and delivered.
Winning the title won’t be easy, but I expect Heim and TRICON Garage to get the job done.
