By Aaron Bearden
As a native Hoosier, I know a thing or two about basketball. My lifelong passion has been motorsports, but I’ve always kept an eye on college hoops, particularly when March Madness arrives.
If you’re an American sports fan, you know how the NCAA Tournament works. You’re given a list of 64 (okay, 68) teams competing in a single-elimination tournament and asked to predict how they’ll fare in each of the competition’s six rounds. You get points for correct predictions on an increasing scale – each round is worth the same amount of points overall, so individual predictions double in value as the amount of matchups decreases.
Denny Hamlin recently proposed a similar concept for the NASCAR Cup Series on his “Actions Detrimental” podcast, saying the top 32 points contenders should be matchup up and placed against each other in an elimination-style tournament in the midst of regular season races, a concept similar to the NBA’s forthcoming mid-season tournament.
Dirty Mo Media then brought it to life with an official bracket challenge.
The rules are simple. Drivers in the top 32 points positions have been seeded based on their standings and placed against each other in a single-elimination tournament. Starting at Kansas Speedway this weekend, the better finisher of each pair will move on to the next round until a champion is crowned at Sonoma Raceway.
Accurately predicting this competition is near-impossible. A flat tire, crash or other issue could derail anyone’s run and yield massive upsets. But with the concept set to launch in a couple days, I thought it would be fun to take a deep dive and predict who might prevail in each match.
Here’s what I came up with.
Round of 32
Track: Kansas Speedway
Matchup One: 1) Ross Chastain v 32) Noah Gragson
The top-seeded Chastain lucks out with a matchup he should win comfortably in the opening round.
Gragson is a talented rookie with promise heading into the future. But Legacy Motor Club doesn’t seem to have strong pace this year and Chastain is a contender that scored top-10s in both Kansas races last year. If he can avoid parts failures, flat tires and payback for his many incidents (hi, Brennan Poole), then this feels like a sure thing.
My pick: Ross Chastain
Matchup Two: 16) Chase Briscoe vs. 17) Daniel Suarez
This one feels like a toss-up.
The duo are right next to each other in the standings. Both have one career win. Neither driver has ran particularly well at Kansas. Suarez cracked the top-10 last fall at the track, but Briscoe was only three spots behind him in 13th. Each driver has four top-10s on the year.
With all of those facts, looking for a differentiator isn’t easy. But I’m going to give the nod to Briscoe for one reason – he’s been the hot hand of late. Suarez has only one top-10 since the third race of the year in Las Vegas. Briscoe’s scored three top-fives in the past four races and seems to be trending up.
I’ll take my fellow Hoosier in this one.
My pick: Chase Briscoe
Matchup Three: 9) Brad Keselowski vs. 24) Erik Jones
This is a battle of Michganders. Rochester Hills native Keselowski is taking on Byron’s Jones.
Keselowski has easily been the better of the two this year, notching five top-10s and two top-fives while avoiding a season-ruining penalty like he endured in 2022. Jones and Legacy Motor Club have gone the opposite direction, scoring just two top-10s and struggling for pace with an average finish down four spots from 2022. The team’s announced Toyota move in 2024 is promising, but that won’t help it here.
Jones has ran well at Kansas in the past, but those results were all for Joe Gibbs Racing. He’s finished no better than 25th at the track in his time with the No. 43 team. Keselowski managed a top-15 in his first RFK Racing start at the facility and has ran better of late.
Give the edge to the 2012 champ.
My pick: Brad Keselowski
Matchup Four: 8) Kyle Busch vs. 25) Aric Almirola
This is a battle of late-30s Cup veterans with differing career trajectories. The younger Busch brother has seemingly been reinvigorated by his move to Richard Childress Racing, notching a pair of early wins. Meanwhile Almirola is struggling to score solid finishes with the Next Gen car after calling off his planned retirement at the end of 2022.
That being said, there is potential for an upset here. Busch is eighth in points, but his Talladega win has masked a stretch where he’s finished 21st or worse in three of four races. Almirola hasn’t fared any better, but he was fast at Martinsville and, critically, just two spots back from Busch at the end of the only prior ‘normal’ 1.5-mile oval race in Las Vegas.
This could be the equivalent of a 12-5 upset in March Madness. But I just can’t pick against Rowdy this early.
My Pick: Kyle Busch
Matchup Five: 5) Ryan Blaney vs. 28) Ryan Preece
A battle of Ryans. The son of a dirt ace is taking on a former Whelen Modified Tour champion in this one. And what do they have in common? Fans waiting for them to make good on their potential.
Blaney is a star driver for one of motorsports’ biggest entities – Team Penske. He’s made deep playoff runs and was my preseason pick to win the title this year. But he’s also struggled to win consistently and gotten to victory lane only in the All-Star Race over the past season and change.
Preece is a short track darling that finally has his chance in strong equipment. But his only chances to win thus far have come on the aforementioned short tracks and been thrown away by a part failure (LA Clash) and pit road speeding penalty (Martinsville).
I’m a believer in both of these drivers. And if it were on a short track, I’d feel a strong urge to pick Preece. But on a 1.5-mile oval in a Penske car, I feel obligated to pick Blaney here.
My Pick: Ryan Blaney
Matchup 6: 12) Chris Buescher vs. 21) Bubba Wallace
Okay, now here’s what should be a favorite upset pick.
The artist formerly known as Christopher Buescher is Mr. Consistency. He’s not flashy, but he nearly always finishes the race and minimizes mistakes. The Texan only has two top-fives in the 2023 campaign to date, but has finished worse than 21st just twice along the way.
Wallace hasn’t had the same consistency, but he’s aimed high in key moments over the past. The 23XI Racing star has shown pace at times in 2023, but has four DNFs to Buescher’s one, hence the major discrepancy in points position.
On that notion, you’d be inclined to pick Buescher here. But there’s one extra element at play – this race is at Kansas, a track 23XI Racing owned in 2022. Both team drivers won at the facility, with Wallace earning his second Cup win in the last trip to the track. Meanwhile Buescher finished 27th and 15th, making little noise along the way.
Could either team’s form change this year? Absolutely. But based on what I’ve seen at Kansas, I feel compelled to pick the upset here.
My Pick: Bubba Wallace
Matchup 7: 13) Joey Logano vs. 20) Michael McDowell
It’s a battle of Ford drivers that have won the Daytona 500 in yellow cars here – how’s that for a niche grouping?
Logano enters this as the overwhelming favorite – a defending Cup champ that’s seven spots ahead of McDowell despite having three DNFs to the McDowell’s zero in the year to date.
To McDowell’s credit, he tends to deliver respectable results at Kansas. Five of his past six runs at the track have ended in the 13-19 range in finishing position. Given a different matchup, he could have been a sneaky upset pick.
But I just can’t make a case for him in this one. Logano’s like this year’s UConn Huskies – a contender far better than his seeding shows.
My Pick: Joey Logano
Matchup 8: 4) Martin Truex Jr. vs. 29) Chase Elliott
Oh man. Oh man, oh man, oh man.
This is an insane matchup for the opening round. The sort of head-to-head you’d expect in the final four. A pair of champions both capable of going to victory lane.
The only reason we’re seeing this matchup so early is due to injury. Elliott missed six races early in the year after a snowboarding accident while Truex did what he does best – rising into the top-five in the standings with consistent speed.
Elliott will be a popular pick here given his massive fanbase and Hendrick Motorsports’ pace. But can we really sleep on Truex? The 2017 Cup champ just won last weekend and has been pretty consistent at what I’d call ‘traditional’ NASCAR tracks. He finished sixth and fifth at Kansas in 2022 to Elliott’s 29th and 11th.
I also think Elliott’s still getting back into the flow of Cup racing. He’s been pretty quiet in finishes of 10th, 12th and 11th since his return.
If this bracket started a month or two down the road, I might go with Elliott. But there’s a strong case to take Truex here.
My Pick: Martin Truex Jr.
Matchup 9: 3) Kevin Harvick vs. 30) Harrison Burton
Harvick came into the Cup Series racing with Jeff and Ward Burton. Now he’s matched up in a bracket competition against Jeff’s son, Harrison.
Unfortunately for Harrison, I don’t think this is an upset he can pull off.
Harvick’s looked like the Happy of old in 2023, though his recent run of form (average finish of 20th in the past three races) hasn’t quite gone to plan. Burton’s shown glimpses of promise, but largely struggled to start his sophomore year with Wood Brothers Racing.
In the 11 races to date, Burton’s failed to finish ahead of Harvick a single time. I can’t see that changing this weekend without some calamity for the 2014 champ.
My Pick: Kevin Harvick
Matchup 10: 14) Ricky Stenhouse Jr. vs. 19) Austin Cindric
The battle of the past two Daytona 500 champs.
Stenhouse has been a pleasant surprise in the 2023 season to date, scoring a couple top-fives and four top-10s, the most important being his Daytona 500 triumph in February. Meanwhile Cindric has hit a sophomore slump, scoring just two top-10s in the No. 2 Ford for Team Penske.
That said, there is a reason to consider Cindric here. One of his best finishes to date came in the prior normal 1.5-mile oval race in Las Vegas, a sixth-place result. Stenhouse was a distant 24th in the same race.
Stenhouse did beat Cindric last spring at Kansas, finishing eighth to the then-rookie’s 11th. But I value Team Penske’s pace in this traditional oval race. I’ve got to take the upset here.
My Pick: Austin Cindric
Matchup 11: 11) William Byron vs. 22) Corey LaJoie
This one just isn’t fair.
LaJoie has been one of the true standouts of 2023, finishing 5.5 positions better on average (18.8) than he did in 2022 (24.3). The son of two-time Xfinity Series champ Randy LaJoie and his Spire Motorsports team have seemingly punched above their weight to place LaJoie firmly in the midfield as the season nears the 1/3 completion mark.
His reward for that in this bracket challenge? Byron – a driver for NASCAR powerhouse Hendrick Motorsports that already has two wins under his belt this year. The only reason Byron is even this far back is a 60-point penalty for a car violation discovered after the race at Richmond Raceway.
Without that, Byron would be third in points. With it, he’s a brutal matchup for LaJoie that makes the No. 7 team a hard sell. I’ve got to go with the favorite here.
My Pick: William Byron
Matchup 12: 6) Tyler Reddick vs. 27) AJ Allmendinger
One of these drivers competed in the Xfinity Series last year. The other is 14 years younger… And also the favorite in their matchup.
Allmendinger took the calculated risk of moving back up to Cup this year with Kaulig Racing, and who can blame him? The pairing had already won on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course in the past. Kaulig had shown promise in 2022, and with the bounty of road courses on the schedule, Allmendinger seemed like the right veteran presence to lead the company up the grid and into the playoffs this year.
That could still happen. But the 41-year-old doesn’t have a strong case for a selection here. He’s behind young teammate Justin Haley in the standings and only has one top-15 finish in the season to date. Meanwhile his foe here, Reddick, has a Circuit of the Americas win and four top-fives to his name.
Allmendinger’s a solid driver that could deliver a surprise here. But it seems unlikely based on what we’ve seen.
My Pick: Tyler Reddick
Matchup 13: 7) Denny Hamlin vs. 26) Justin Haley
Flip most of the last scenario and you get this one. Reddick’s car owner, Hamlin, is taking on Allmendinger’s Kaulig Racing teammate, Haley. Hamlin’s a 42-year-old veteran. Haley’s just 24 years old and could have a bright future ahead.
Hamlin is an overwhelming favorite here. But could Haley pull the upset? The Hoosier out-dueled Hamlin (eighth vs. 11th) in Las Vegas. Neither driver’s been consistently finishing well, with only a combined six top-10s despite having just one DNF between the two of them.
There’s a real chance that Hamlin’s No. 11 team has one of their bad weeks and Haley shocks him in his own bracket. But I have to trust Joe Gibbs Racing’s pace and Hamlin’s assured eagerness to rise to the occasion for the competition he effectively created.
My Pick: Denny Hamlin
Matchup 14: 10) Kyle Larson vs. 23) Todd Gilliland
Okay, hear me out. This could be more intriguing than it may at first appear.
Larson should crush Gilliland on paper. He’s possibly NASCAR’s best driver, having utterly dominated the 2021 season. The Californian’s already won two races and he finished second and eighth at Kansas last year.
But there’s something extra to consider here. Larson has been prone to mistakes, poor luck and general disappointment this season. The dirt track star’s only 10th in points because he has as many finishes outside of the top-30 (four) as he does inside of the top-10.
Gilliland and Front Row Motorsports aren’t likely to match Larson and Hendrick Motorsports on pace. But they’ve been great at controlling what they can control. With his career seemingly on the line, Gilliland has managed to score three top-10s and five top-15 finishes in the past seven races. He has just one DNF on the year (Daytona, where basically everyone crashed) and is only 16 points behind veteran teammate Michael McDowell in the standings.
That doesn’t mean I’m going to pick him, of course. Larson finished second in Las Vegas and can beat anyone on his good days. But this is a pick we’ll all have to sweat out given Larson’s troubles and Gilliland’s consistency.
My Pick: Kyle Larson
Matchup 15: 15) Josh Berry vs. 18) Ty Gibbs
What an interesting matchup we have here. A veteran short track ace going up against a rising NASCAR star.
Berry is filling in for the injured Alex Bowman, driving the No. 48 Chevrolet just weeks after he wrapped up similar substitute duty for Chase Elliott. Amid rumblings of a potential big Cup move next year, the 32-year-old Tennessean scored a best finish of second for Elliott and kicked off his stint replacing Bowman with a top-10 at Dover.
He’s facing off against the 20-year-old Gibbs, grandson of team owner Joe Gibbs and top Toyota prospect. The Charlotte native won 11 times in 51 Xfinity Series starts and scored the 2022 championship before his full-time rise to Cup. Gibbs ran quietly in fill-in duty for Kurt Busch last year, but has been consistent and impressive in his true rookie season, scoring four-consecutive top-10s from Atlanta through Bristol.
Neither driver ran particularly well in Las Vegas. Both could be in contention in Kansas. This is difficult to decide.
But in the end, I like Gibbs. Just have a hunch he’ll be in the top-10 this weekend based on Toyota’s Kansas pace last year.
My Pick: Ty Gibbs
Matchup 16: 2) Christopher Bell vs. 31) Austin Dillon
Here we see another battle that’s closer than the seeding suggests, aided by a big recent penalty for Dillon’s No. 3 team.
But even with this one being tighter than Dillon’s 31st-place standing would suggest, it’s difficult to find a case against Bell here.
The Oklahoman made huge steps in 2022, rolling to the Championship 4 as the lead driver for Joe Gibbs Racing. He’s followed that up with another strong campaign in 2023, currently sitting second in points with a win in the bank at the Bristol dirt track.
Dillon and the No. 3 team have a way of surprising the garage and finding ways to contend. But the elder Dillon brother hasn’t been as competitive as teammate Kyle Busch, while Bell’s scored eight top-10s and five top-fives in 11 starts.
Bell also finished in the top-five in both 2022 starts at Kansas. Give me the No. 20 for this one.
My Pick: Christopher Bell
Round of 16
Track: Darlington Raceway
Matchup One: 1) Ross Chastain vs. 16) Chase Briscoe
Okay, this one’s difficult to predict.
Chastain is solid at hanging his car on the edge and scored a third-place finish at Darlington back with Chip Ganassi Racing in 2021. But he also finished 30th and 20th at the track last year for Trackhouse Racing. Briscoe is an Xfinity Series winner at Darlington, but has finishes of 11th, 19th, 20th and 27th in his four Cup starts at the track to date, finishing worse each time out.
Stastically, the duo aren’t too far apart this year. Chastain has one more top-five (4) and top-10 (5). But Chastain has led 136 more laps (251) and has finished 4.6 positions better than Briscoe on average.
This could be the sort of track where a driver gets revenge on Ross, or one of his aggressive mishaps costs him dearly. But I find him difficult to pick against here.
My Pick: Ross Chastain
Matchup Two: 8) Kyle Busch vs. 9) Brad Keselowski
An old rivalry is renewed with new organizations… But who’ll come out on top?
Keselowski has yet to win since entering his driver-owner role at RFK Racing – something it took Busch just two weeks to do for Richard Childress Racing. But he’s right with the Nevadan in the points because of his consistency. Busch has two wins, but Keselowski actually has the higher average finish of the two (12.1 vs. 13.0).
If both teams perform their best, this year’s results would indicate Busch as the likely winner here. But I like Keselowski for a small upset based on his consistency and a seventh-place run at Darlington last fall.
My Pick: Brad Keselowski
Matchup Three: 5) Ryan Blaney vs. 21) Bubba Wallace
The last time we saw these friends together, they were wrecking on the last lap at Talladega. Now they could find themselves battling in a bracket challenge.
Much like with Wallace’s Kansas matchup, this head-to-head is intriguing because of the track it would take place at.
Blaney would be the favorite at most places. He’s fast, consistent and in top-tier equipment with Team Penske. But last year’s All-Star Race winner has struggled historically at Darlington. He has just one top-10 (2021) and finished 17th and 13th in the Next Gen car last season.
Wallace hasn’t historically fared much better, but 23XI Racing had pace at the track last season and Wallace finished ninth. This feels like a risk, but I could see Wallace surprising Blaney in this one.
My Pick: Bubba Wallace
Matchup Four: 4) Martin Truex Jr. vs. 13) Joey Logano
What a toss-up.
This battle features two Cup champions that have frequented the Championship 4. Logano is the defending spring Darlington winner and champion. Truex shockingly missed the playoffs last year after going winless, but was a top-five points contender and just won in Dover.
Logano has a win at Darlington in the Next Gen car, so it’s difficult to pick against him here. But the defending champ’s been inconsistent this season and Truex should be in contention if he can avoid issues. I think I’m going to ride the hot hand.
My Pick: Martin Truex Jr.
Matchup 5: 3) Kevin Harvick vs. 19) Austin Cindric
Harvick won in what may be Darlington’s most important race – the first event back amid the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Can Happy do it again in 2023?
It’s difficult to say. But I think he can manage enough to beat Cindric in this round.
The 2014 Cup champ is a constant contender at ‘The Track Too Tough to Tame.’ He’s finished sixth or better in 12 of the past 14 races at the track. Cindric finished a quiet 16th and 18th in his two trips to Darlington last year.
Cindric could rise up and prove me wrong, but this feels like the safest pick of the round.
My Pick: Kevin Harvick
Matchup Six: 6) Tyler Reddick vs. 11) William Byron
Two of NASCAR’s brightest young stars are set to do battle here. Picking between them is about as difficult a task as any.
You can throw out most of the pair’s early results here. Byron and Reddick have both risen to their current form recently and Reddick’s old team, Richard Childress Racing, wasn’t as competitive pre-Next Gen car.
Reddick finished second and third at Darlington last year. Byron finished 13th and eighth, but was critically in contention to win the first one before he was put in the wall by Logano in the final laps.
Byron’s been the more consistent contender of the two this season, but they’ve both won races when performing at their best. In the end I give the narrowest of edges to Reddick here, solely because he excels at tracks like Darlington. These early tracks have been favorable for 23XI Racing.
My Pick: Tyler Reddick
Matchup Seven: 7) Denny Hamlin vs. 10) Kyle Larson
A pair of title contenders that haven’t quite had the results to match their potential in 2023. This could be fun.
Hamlin is a star at Darlington. He has four wins and 12 top-fives in 21 starts at the track, including a 2021 victory over a hard-charging Larson in a year where Larson’s No. 5 team was as good as any group in modern NASCAR history.
Larson has yet to get to victory lane at Darlington, but he’s sure been close. The Californian has five top-fives in 10 starts, including three-straight finishes of second from 2019 through 2021.
There’s little to differentiate these two at Darlington. Either could realistically come out on top. But I’ll give the nod to Hamlin because he finished second at the track last fall.
My Pick: Denny Hamlin
Matchup Eight: 2) Christopher Bell vs. 18) Ty Gibbs
Oh, this one could get awkward.
After a few years spent labeled as a rising star, Bell finally rose into title contention in 2022. He won major races and made a push to the Championship 4. Meanwhile, his new teammate, Gibbs, was dominating the Xfinity Series to take that rising star label that Bell was shaking off with him to the Cup Series.
Gibbs got to compete at Darlington last year with 23XI Racing and finished a respectable 15th. He’s also proven himself to be a solid Cup rookie, sitting 18th in points with four top-10s early in the season.
But this matchup is a tough one for Gibbs. Bell finally figured out Darlington and notched finishes of sixth and fifth last year. The Oklahoman has proven himself capable of running well anywhere the series goes. Unlike in last year’s controversial fall Xfinity Series race at Martinsville Speedway, I don’t see Gibbs coming out ahead of his teammate here.
My Pick: Christopher Bell
Round of 8
Track: Charlotte Motor Speedway
Matchup One: 1) Ross Chastain vs. 9) Brad Keselowski
A decade ago Keselowski was the defending Cup champ and Chastain was driving for his Craftsman Truck Series team. Now the pair are both capable Cup contenders that could make deep runs in this bracket challenge.
On paper, this round should favor Chastain. Trackhouse Racing brought two of the fastest cars to Charlotte Motor Speedway for last year’s Coca-Cola 600. Chastain led 153 of the night’s 413 laps. But it’s worth noting that both he and teammate Daniel Suarez failed to make good on their potential that night for varying reasons. Chastain wound up 15th at race’s end.
Keselowski won the Coca-Cola 600 in 2020 and has the level-headed consistency to survive to the end of the race. He only has three DNFs in 23 starts on the Charlotte oval, so I expect him to put together a clean race and hold Chastain honest.
That said, I’m picking Chastain here. But he needs to be careful and ensure his No. 1 Chevrolet lasts to the checkered flag.
My Pick: Ross Chastain
Matchup 2: 4) Martin Truex Jr. vs. 21) Bubba Wallace
Can Cinderella’s shoe continue to fit?
If I’m being honest, I doubt it.
Wallace was worth a couple upset picks because of the tracks and matchups he was presented with early on. But he’s a tough sell against MTJ at Charlotte Motor Speedway.
Truex hasn’t had the finishes he’s wanted in the Queen City over the past couple years. But he knows his way around the place as good as anyone. The 2017 Cup champ unleashed one of NASCAR’s all-time greatest butt-whoppings in the 2016 Coca-Cola 600, leading 392 of 400 laps for the win.
Wallace, meanwhile, has never finished in the top-10 at the track. I don’t see a strong case for picking him here.
My Pick: Martin Truex Jr.
Matchup Three: 3) Kevin Harvick vs. 6) Tyler Reddick
Okay, now we’re talking.
This battle presents a fun mix of styles. A classic, smooth veteran up against a hard-charging young star. Two drivers near-guaranteed to finish in the top-10 with little margin between them.
Harvick has a pair of Coca-Cola 600 wins from 2011 and 2012, a fact that still makes most members of JR Nation sick to their stomachs. But it’s his consistency in the race that’s most impressive. Since arriving at Stewart-Haas Racing in 2014, Harvick’s cracked the top-10 in every race he’s finished on the Charlotte oval. Only one crash (2018) and an engine failure (2016) have blemished an otherwise perfect streak of consistency.
Reddick isn’t quite known for the same consistency, but he’s had little issue finding it in Charlotte. The two-time Xfinity Series champ has an 9.3 average finish on the 1.5-mile oval, with three top-10s in four starts.
Either driver could realistically find themselves in the top-five, or perhaps even the lead at the end of NASCAR’s longest race. But I give the slightest edge to Harvick. He finished third last year and seems to be running even better this season. I wouldn’t be shocked if he won this race.
My Pick: Kevin Harvick
Matchup 4: 2) Christopher Bell vs. 7) Denny Hamlin
From one Joe Gibbs Racing battle to another for CBell… Can he topple the creator of this bracket challenge?
Yes. He absolutely can – and I think he will.
Hamlin has done most of his best work at Charlotte in recent years. Last season’s Coca-Cola 600 win was his first at the track, but he’s tallied seven of his 11 top-fives at the facility in the past 11 races.
But Bell wasn’t far behind him last year in fifth. And his No. 20 team has arguably out-executed Hamlin’s No. 11 squad for the majority of this year.
The pair have each had pace, but Bell’s been more consistent. He has eight top-10s in 11 starts, despite running at a wide variety of tracks. Hamlin’s No. 11 team has given away track position on pit road and struggled at times, leaving them with half as many top-10s (4).
If everything goes perfectly, I think Hamlin would have the edge here. But I trust the consistency of Bell and his No. 20 team more right now.
My Pick: Christopher Bell
Round of 4
Track: World Wide Technology Raceway
Matchup One: 1) Ross Chastain vs. 4) Martin Truex Jr.
Wait… Didn’t we just see this battle in Dover?
Truex got the better of Chastain in a tense fight for victory at the Monster Mile. But Chastain’s had the better run of the two since he moved to Trackhouse Racing. The Florida native made a run to the Championship 4 last year while Truex missed the playoffs entirely. He’s leading the points this year even though he’s the winless one of the pair.
World Wide Technology Raceway wasn’t kind to Chastain last time out. It was where he enflamed rivalries with both Elliott and Hamlin, causing crashes and controversy throughout the afternoon.
That said, he (eighth) only finished two spots behind Truex (sixth) at race’s end. So their results are essentially a wash.
There’s not much to make a pick one way or the other here. But I’m taking Truex for one reason – I think Chastain’s general chicanery will cause him issues at some stage. Might as well be here.
My Pick: Martin Truex Jr.
Matchup Two: 2) Christopher Bell vs. 3) Kevin Harvick
A battle of consistency.
Bell and Harvick have been two of the most consistent drivers in the Cup Series this year, finding their way into the top-10 with great frequency. They’re both top-three in the points and could conceivably win anywhere.
Bell got the better of the two at Gateway last year, finishing ninth. But Harvick was just behind him in 13th when he crashed in the final stage. The pair have each won at the track in NASCAR’s lower levels and they had teammates that ran well at the track in 2022.
With little else to differentiate this duo, I’m going to lean toward experience. I don’t think Harvick ends his career without a good Cup result at Gateway.
My Pick: Kevin Harvick
Championship Round
Track: Sonoma Raceway
Matchup: 3) Kevin Harvick vs. 4) Martin Truex Jr.
This finale is a tricky one to predict. These are two future Hall of Fame drivers, each with wins at the host of the finale. But last year’s results make this one difficult to call.
If we were using both drivers’ full body of work at Sonoma Raceway, then the pick to win would have to be Truex. He has three Cup victories in wine country and is among the track’s best drivers. But we also have to take Toyota’s recent road course performance into account. The manufacturer was objectively awful last year at Sonoma – like, no drivers in the top-15 levels of awful.
Yes, Reddick helped turn things around with his win at Circuit of the Americas in March. But there was still only one other Toyota (Gibbs) with him in the top-15 at race’s end.
If Harvick was awful at road courses, I’d still give the edge to Truex here. But Harvick has a 12.8 average finish with a win and seven top-fives in 21 Sonoma starts. I just don’t trust Toyota enough to give Truex the edge, so I’ll take Harvick to add a new achievement to his resume in his final year.
My Championship Pick: Kevin Harvick
