(Photo: Nigel Kinrade Photography)
By Aaron Bearden
The 2023 NASCAR season is nearly here.
After an eventful 2022 campaign both on and off-track, the stars of the NASCAR Cup Series will kick off the 2023 campaign with the Busch Light Clash at the Coliseum this weekend in Los Angeles. In doing so, the field will begin another year that promises to be filled with storylines, drama and surprises.
Before the field gets to the West Coast to get the year underway, here are 10 storylines worth following in the year to come.
1) Next Gen, V2
NASCAR’s Next Gen debut was largely successful in 2022.
Now comes the time to build on it.
The main thing everyone will watch with the cars heading into 2023 will be the impact of crashes. Former Cup champion Kurt Busch was lost for the year to a concussion in a July race at Pocono and still isn’t returning for the start of this season. Alex Bowman’s playoff hopes were ended by a concussion in the fall trip to Texas Motor Speedway. Countless others discussed the bone-rattling hits they sustained over the year in crashes at various tracks.
Can NASCAR successfully make this car safer and mitigate the risk of future concussions and injuries? That will be the key question through the first part of the year.
Beyond that, there’s room to improve in terms of on-track quality. Intermediate tracks saw marked improvement and the Next Gen car produced a litany of winners in 2022. But the car notably struggled to consistently provide the quality of racing fans expect at short tracks and road courses – two key portions of the 2023 schedule given the calendar’s two new events.
NASCAR is working on solutions for those and other concerns, testing things like mufflers to mitigate noise and reducing spoiler size to improve racing when necessary.
How well those solutions work could be a key part of ensuring the positives of the Next Gen car’s perceptions outweigh the negative in the car’s second season.
2) Sweet Home Chicago
The NASCAR Cup Series is going street course racing in 2023. How it handles the opportunity could be key for future schedules down the road.
Street circuits aren’t new to open wheel racing, but this is something entirely different for America’s top racing series. Throwing together a regular season race in the midst of one of America’s biggest cities will be an immense logistical challenge – far greater than the Busch Light Clash or any other race on recent schedules.
But if it works, the Chicago Street Race has potentially to be a genuine highlight on the calendar.
Will the racing be good? Unlikely – the on-track product is typically secondary in these special events on streets not designed for racing.
But if the product is passable, this is a chance to showcase NASCAR to a new audience while introducing another slice of variety on one of motorsport’s most unique schedules.
With a successful street race in Chicago, NASCAR could try to sell itself to any number of markets. Could this be how the sport gets into the heart of New York City, or to the northwestern portion of the United States? What about a street circuit in Denver?
Anything is possible if this event is a success, so this might be the most important race weekend of the year.
3) North Wilkesboro Reborn
If Chicago is the bold, new highlight on NASCAR’s schedule, then a trip to North Wilkesboro Speedway is the opposite – a faithful return to a lost cathedral of speed that promises to be a major date on the calendar.
The All-Star Race has been a floundering event in recent years, particularly at the much-maligned Texas Motor Speedway for the past two years. By bringing it to Wilkes County, NASCAR is helping to rejuvenate both its midseason exhibition and one of North Carolina’s most historic racing venues.
This is going to be the hottest ticket on the 2023 schedule and likely a logistical nightmare. Traffic stacked up for a CARS Tour race at the track last summer, so one can only hope fans are patient and understanding as they arrive at what will surely be among the modern era’s most memorable nights.
There are concerns about the racing product – namely that short track racing as a whole suffered in the Next Gen car’s first season. But if this event can live up to even a portion of its expectation, it could become among the annual calendar’s most special events – a night filled with stars happily competing under the lights and enthralling fans in what feels like a marquee, must-win event.
Isn’t that exactly what an All-Star Race should be?
4) Rowdy and Reddick
The free agency stories surrounding Kyle Busch and Tyler Reddick were among the key topics of what proved to be an eventful 2022 Cup Series season.
Now comes the time to see how they fair with their new teams.
After 15 seasons with Toyota and Joe Gibbs Racing, Kyle Busch has moved to Chevrolet with Richard Childress Racing. The shift was one of the biggest free agent signings in modern NASCAR history, landing RCR perhaps the best driver of his generation.
How Busch and the organization handle the move will be key. The Nevadan has struggled relative to his own standard in recent years, winning just four races in three years after winning four or more races in each of the preceding five seasons.
Should he return to form, the RCR move could be a career renaissance. If it goes poorly there could be an implosion that wastes what could be the last good years of Busch’s career.
For Busch to succeed, RCR will have to live up to its end of the bargain. But while that would have been a questionable ask in the past, the 2022 season showed some signs for optimism. That’s because the car Busch is entering won three times just last year.
The driver in those triumphs? Tyler Reddick.
In his third year of full-time competition, Reddick frequently outpaced veteran teammate Austin Dillon and established himself as a consistent contender. The Californian’s talent caught the eye of several in the industry – including the powers that be at 23XI Racing, who signed Reddick for what it thought would be the 2024 season.
The move appeared to catch RCR by surprise and led to hurt feelings. But the unfortunate injury of Kurt Busch proved to be a break for both parties. After some negotiations, Reddick left RCR a year early and is now off to 23XI Racing, where he’ll pair with Bubba Wallace.
Based on his showings at RCR and 23XI’s overall pace, Reddick could be an immediate threat for victories and even the championship. Busch’s prior results show he could easily be the same for RCR if everything goes to plan.
Watching both teams try to reach their high ceilings will be a fascinating part of 2023.
5) Seven-time’s LEGACY Play
Jimmie Johnson’s back.
One of the surprises of 2022 was the announced return of Johnson as a co-owner of what was Petty GMS. The organization has rebranded as Legacy Motor Club and will field Johnson for a partial schedule alongside full-time efforts for Erik Jones and Noah Gragson. Johnson’s first attempted start will come in the Daytona 500.
For Johnson, this move provides an opportunity to add to an already-impressive NASCAR legacy. The former Hendrick Motorsports star is already listed among the greatest Cup drivers of all-time. He has seven championships, 83 victories and nearly 19,000 laps led.
Johnson stepped away to focus on the NTT IndyCar Series, sports cars and other interests for two years. He’s not done with competition elsewhere, either – Johnson is going to pilot NASCAR’s Garage 56 entry in the 24 Hours of Le Mans and is rumored to be considering ‘The Double,’ running IndyCar’s Indianapolis 500 and NASCAR’s Coca-Cola 600 on the same day.
But the Californian is dedicating himself to NASCAR in the long-term.
“Without a doubt, yeah, this isn’t a short-term play for me,” he told NASCAR.com on Jan. 11. “This is certainly long-term play, long-term vision and trying to build my legacy outside of the car.”
The organization itself has potential to shine outside of Johnson. Changing its name Legacy M.C. gives the squad a unique brand name to engage with. Jones is coming into 2023 off of a year that included a win in the Southern 500, and Gragson was a star in the Xfinity Series.
For at least Speedweeks, Johnson’s return promises to steal the show. But this organization is positioned to be intriguing all-around in 2023.
6) Rookie Racers
With Busch’s exit at JGR comes the arrival of Ty Gibbs, perhaps the most promising young prospect of the current generation.
The grandson of team owner Joe Gibbs, Ty first proved dominant in the ARCA Menards Series, winning 16 out of the 36 races he contested in 2020 and ’21. That success led Gibbs to the Xfinity Series, where he shockingly won on his debut at the Daytona road course in 2021.
That early success was proven to be no fluke. Gibbs won three additional times in a partial 2021 outing then rode seven wins to the series title in 2022.
His immediate impact at the lower levels made Gibbs an easy choice to replace Busch at JGR. The unfortunate injury of Kyle’s brother, Kurt, also allowed Gibbs to get 15 races of Cup Series experience with 23XI Racing in 2022.
Challenging Gibbs for rookie of the year honors will be the same young star that rivaled him in Xfinity last year: Gragson. After six full seasons between the Craftsman Truck Series and Xfinity Series, Gragson is finally making the move up to Cup full-time.
His patience at the lower levels was rewarded with a breakout 2022 season. Gragson earned eight victories, 21 top-fives and led 1,010 laps before falling one spot short of the title in the Championship 4.
Now Gragson is making the leap up to the rebranded Legacy M.C. and bringing his crew chief with him. Former JR Motorsports signal caller Luke Lambert followed Gragson to the Cup Series, keeping together the partnership that tore through the Xfinity Series in 2022.
Both rookies will enter 2023 with questions. Gibbs caught flack for being too reckless at times in 2022 and has the unfair task of maintaining the status quo after he tragically lost his father the day after his title win last fall. Gragson has also been criticized for being overzealous on-track at times and has an unusual issue with throwing up during and after races.
Early concerns aside, these two young stars both have potential to become winners and champions at the Cup level. Their continued rivalry will be a fun follow as they adjust to Cup competition and battle for Rookie of the Year honors.
7) Ryan Preece’s Golden Opportunity
So many in motorsports never get the top-tier ride they desire. Even fewer are granted a second chance after their initial opportunity goes sour.
But Ryan Preece has been afforded a rare opportunity to redeem his Cup career at a top-tier organization. Now comes the time to make good on it.
Preece arrived a Stewart-Haas Racing in 2022 as something of a held asset. He primarily worked behind the scenes and helped with simulator work, making select starts in all three of NASCAR’s national series. There was no guarantee that he’d secure anything major out of it, but it effectively put Preece in the fold at SHR.
A star of short track modified competition, Preece earned the support of team co-owner Tony Stewart and veteran teammate Kevin Harvick. When the time came to make a decision about the stagnant No. 41 team last fall, SHR elected to lift Preece to the top level and demote Cole Custer to the Xfinity Series.
Custer’s misfortune is Preece’s golden opportunity. The Connecticut native had just two top-fives and nine top-10s in three full seasons for JTG-Daugherty Racing. Now he gets a chance to completely reshape the perception of his abilities and Cup career.
With that opportunity comes expectation. SHR is a team that, save perhaps for a disappointing 2021, consistently brings cars capable of winning races and making deep playoff runs. Kevin Harvick is a Cup champion, Chase Briscoe made it to the Round of 8 last fall and Aric Almirola has finished as high as fifth in the championship.
Preece is getting a serious chance to showcase his skills. But he needs to contend for races and prove himself playoff-worthy. Success in doing so could secure himself a long-term opportunity. Failure will likely leave him out of the Cup Series in any competitive ride for good.
8) Parity
If there’s one thing the Next Gen car was inarguably good for, it was increasing the likelihood for new winners.
The 2022 season was filled with drivers making their way to victory lane. A record-tying 19 different winners emerged on the year, with an additional two victors in exhibition races (Brad Keselowski, Daytona qualifier, Ryan Blaney, All-Star Race).
That made for an unpredictable season, with high points finishes no longer enough to guarantee a playoff berth. Martin Truex Jr. was a top-five points driver and arguable title contender, yet he failed to make the postseason at all after Austin Dillon won in the regular season finale.
Each week seemed to bring surprise contenders, inviting unique battles that hadn’t previously been seen. Even winless drivers like Justin Haley and Corey LaJoie made their mark at different times in the year, running up front and contending for victories with the stars of the sport.
It’s unfair to expect that level of parity to continue on year after year. But it will be worth watching to see if the competitiveness of the field remains as high in Next Gen’s sophomore season.
9) Schedule shakeups
What changes will NASCAR make when it releases its 2024 Cup schedule?
This is admittedly a distant question to track, but it’s a worthwhile one nonetheless.
In the bold, modern era of NASCAR, noteworthy schedule changes have been made on an annual basis. The 2021 season brought the Bristol Dirt race and a litany of road courses. Last year saw the year-opening Clash shifted to the LA Memorial Coliseum. This season adds a race on the streets of Chicago and a return to North Wilkesboro Speedway.
What could possibly be next for NASCAR? A new stadium race in another city? What about a different street circuit? Maybe an international race? Another short track return at Rockingham Raceway or elsewhere?
It’s difficult to pinpoint any exact options right now. But NASCAR has shown that it likes having a new marquee event to market around each year, so it’s worth remembering that the sport will likely be looking at its options again heading into 2024.
10) Ross Chastain and Trackhouse Racing Keep Building
The 2022 season was nothing if not memorable for Ross Chastain.
Arriving at a new team in Trackhouse Racing, Chastain made an immediate impact. The Floridian scored two wins, including the organization’s first at Circuit of the Americas. He had numerous high-profile run-ins with various drivers, exposed a runoff area loophole that got him black-flagged in Indianapolis and made a playoff run all the way to the Championship 4.
Oh, and there was the Hail Melon.
Love him or hate him, there was no way to avoid being mesmerized by Chastain at some point or another in 2022. He created consistent storylines and provided one of the most memorable NASCAR moments of this century.
Now that he’s established himself as a serious contender, what’s next for Chastain? Can he and Trackhouse Racing become champions, or will his aggressive style be his undoing? Will teammate Daniel Suarez be able to join Chastain at the front of the field and back up his Sonoma Raceway win from 2022?
What about Project 91? Will any surprise entrants join Kimi Raikkonen as stars to drive for the all-star program?
It’s impossible to tell right now. But following Chastain and Trackhouse Racing should be interesting in the organization’s third season.
Other topics to follow:
- TV deals – do FOX and NBC continue to air races moving forward? What about streaming providers?
- Kevin Harvick’s final season as a Cup Series driver.
- Free agency (who makes a surprising move this year?)
- Is this the last Clash in LA? If so, where does it go next?
- Martin Truex Jr. and Ryan Blaney bouncing back from winless seasons.
- Christopher Bell trying to repeat his 2022 success.
- The fight to be top driver at Hendrick Motorsports.
- Who wins the Daytona 500?
