(Photo: Nigel Kinrade Photography)
By Aaron Bearden
What happened?
NASCAR issued the first major penalty of its Next Gen era on Thursday when the sanctioning body levied an L2-level penalty on RFK Racing’s No. 6 team.
Brad Keselowski’s squad was docked both 100 driver points and 100 owner points. Crew chief Matt McCall was fined $100,000 and suspended from the next four NASCAR Cup Series races. An additional 10 playoff points will also be docked from the team should they make the postseason.
The penalty was issued under Sections 14.1 and 14.5 of the NASCAR Rule Book, which pertain to the modification of single-source supplied parts. These violations were caught during teardown inspection at the NASCAR Research and Development Center following Sunday’s race at Atlanta Motor Speedway, per NASCAR’s release.
Analysis
Based on the net loss to Keselowski’s No. 6 team, this penalty ranks among the most severe in NASCAR history.
Greater point totals have been penalized in the past, but at the time of those penalties NASCAR’s points structure was different from the modern era. A penalty of 100+ points was typically less than could be earned in a race, with winners commonly earning 185 points or more for a victory prior to 2011. Under the current system, which generally issues one point per position with additional bonus points, a penalty of 100 points is worth more than one race.
Keselowski sat 16th in points with 122 points prior to the penalty – a mark of 24.4 points per race on average. Assuming he maintains that pace, Thursday’s points loss essentially took away four races worth of points for the 2012 Cup champ.
The addition of a playoff point penalty is also significant, meaning Keselowski will be faced with a challenging deficit to overcome if he finds way to the postseason.
But will Keselowski even make it to the playoffs at this point?
It’s looking unlikely.
The Michigander has made the Field of 16 each year since the current elimination era began in 2014, but he was already up for an increased challenge this season after moving to the struggling RFK Racing. Keselowski had a genuine chance to make the postseason on points, but with a 104-point deficit to the current cutline, the odds of him closing that gap in the remaining 21 races are slim.
Assuming he can crawl back into the top-30 in points – the penalty leaves him in 35th at the moment – that leaves a win as Keselowski’s most likely path to the playoffs. The No. 6 Ford’s performance in the Daytona 500 shows that a victory could be possible, but it’s difficult to imagine an organization that hasn’t won since 2017 rising back to victory lane easily.
Keselowski’s setback should serve as a warning for the rest of the Cup field. NASCAR promised to issue significant penalties to teams that modified the many spec parts of the Next Gen car.
If there were any doubts over the seriousness of NASCAR’s threat, Thursday’s news should resolve them. Proceed at your own risk.
