(Photo: Nigel Kinrade Photography)
By Aaron Bearden
Sixteen down, 10 to go.
As the NASCAR Cup Series finally arrives at its lone midseason off weekend, just 10 races separate the field from the Next Gen car’s first edition of the playoffs.
The first stretch of the regular season saw numerous new contenders, a few first-time winners and some longtime playoff veterans fail to make their way to victory lane. A dozen different drivers have prevailed in races, leaving a maximum of four potential playoff spots remaining on points.
With attention slowly shifting toward the postseason, that’s left many traditional contenders feeling the heat as the summer stretch gets underway. Former title winners and Championship 4 contenders find themselves on the outside looking in, while others prepare for their first playoff push. The sheer depth of winners has also left a subtle undercurrent of unease among winners, with a chance for a win not being enough to secure a playoff spot.
Here’s how the playoff grid is shaping up with 10 races left in the regular season.
Let’s start with the race winners.
Locks
Ross Chastain: With two victories to his name and only 16 points separating him from points leader Chase Elliott, Chastain is essentially a guarantee for his first Cup playoff appearance.
Joey Logano: The same is true for Logano, whose controversial Darlington Raceway win was quickly followed by a victory at World Wide Technology Raceway. The 2018 champ also has an exhibition triumph from the season-opening Busch Light Clash at the Coliseum.
William Byron: A pair of early victories at Martinsville Speedway and Atlanta Motor Speedway made Byron an early lock for the playoff field.
Denny Hamlin: At 21st in points, it’s safe to say a lot has gone wrong for Hamlin and the No. 11 team. But wins at Richmond Raceway and Charlotte Motor Speedway have helped him avoid the stress facing the drivers he sits near in the standings – including the ones with one win.
Chase Elliott: Not only does he have a win from Dover Motor Speedway – Elliott is also the points leader. Additional win or not, he’s making the playoffs without any strange occurrences.
Kyle Busch: The No. 18 team has given away some wins and points, but the Bristol Dirt Race victory and a strong points position (third) has Busch’s playoff return all-but guaranteed.
Kyle Larson: An early Auto Club Speedway win gave the defending champs an early route to the playoff field. Larson hasn’t matched that success since, but he has enough of an advantage over the last winner of one race (121 points) that Larson’s spot appears safe even with a bevy of new winners.
Alex Bowman: The same is true for Bowman, who sits just 16 points behind Larson with an early victory at Las Vegas Motor Speedway to his name.
Looking Good
Chase Briscoe: You could make an argument that Briscoe should have two or more wins under his belt given lost opportunities at Bristol and Charlotte. But the Hoosier still has an early victory from Phoenix Raceway to hold on to. He also has a 31-point buffer on 19th-place Kurt Busch should there be 17 winners in the regular season.
Watching the Winner Tally
Daniel Suarez: Sunday’s win at Sonoma Raceway was season-altering for Suarez, all-but locking him into the postseason from 17th in points. But he has just 11 points on Kurt Busch should excess winners cause a battle on points for final playoff spots. There’s more work to be done.
Austin Cindric: The same concept applies to Cindric, who won big in the Daytona 500 but finds himself 18th in points. He’s seven points up on Busch as things stand.
Kurt Busch: The 2004 Cup champ has been moving his way up the standings with better general pace of late and had a breakthrough win at Kansas Speedway. But if additional winners begin to pile up, Busch’s No. 45 team could still find themselves on the outside looking in.
Now then, let’s look at the points contenders.
Good Without Extra Winners
Ryan Blaney: Team Penske’s best driver in points also happens to be its only winless competitor. He actually does have a win, but it came in the non-points All-Star Race. Blaney holds three possible routes to the playoffs – getting through on points without 16 race winners, winning a points race or closing up his 25-point deficit to Elliott and getting the automatic spot for the regular season champion.
Martin Truex Jr.: More discussion has been taking place around Truex’s potential retirement than his playoff hopes so far. That’s at least partially because he’s probably safe without 15 other winners. Truex sits 37 points clear of his one winless teammate for the second-highest point total among those without a win.
More Work to Do
Christopher Bell: That winless teammate is Bell, who has yet to replicate the success of his Daytona road course win in 2021. Bell has a 28-point edge on Kevin Harvick at the cutline right now, but he could use a win to lock in his place. Maybe he can add another victory at a place he dominated in the Xfinity Series – New Hampshire Motor Speedway.
Aric Almirola: Stewart-Haas Racing’s soon-to-be retired veteran has a seven-point advantage over his title-winning teammate for the last spot on points. But Almirola also has to hope for a lack of new winners in the last 10 races of the regular season if he’s going to make a final playoff push on points.
When it comes to drivers below the playoff cutline on points, it’s difficult to aim for a playoff spot without a win at this stage. But while they all sit in a likely must-win situation, there is hope for a few in the group to advance on points.
So You’re Saying There’s a Chance
Kevin Harvick: It’s hard to imagine the playoffs without Harvick, isn’t it? But there’s a real likelihood that it could happen this year. That said, Harvick has a chance. He’s crept close to victory lane at Richmond and Sonoma and also sits just seven points behind Almirola on the bubble should the last spots come down to points.
Tyler Reddick: Remember in the spring when Reddick was seemingly on fire? When he was being floated as a likely winner and potential title contender? Well the win hasn’t happened and Reddick now finds himself 42 points below the cutline and still winless. It’s going to take some effort to make his strong 2022 remembered for more than wasted potential.
Austin Dillon: Just five points behind Reddick is his teammate, who nearly pulled off a late steal of the Coca-Cola 600 but otherwise hasn’t quite had race-winning pace. Dillon’s among the best in the midfield at finding a way to snag a win, though, having triumphed in three of the past five seasons.
Erik Jones: There was a real chance for Jones to win at Fontana. He’s also contended at WWT Raceway and elsewhere. But it hasn’t been enough for the Michigander to make the playoff field just yet. At 55 points back, Jones has a slim chance to gain ground in points. But he’ll probably need to bring Petty GMS Racing to victory lane to chase a championship this fall.
Everyone Else: Must Win
The remaining title contenders all find themselves well beyond the playoff field on points and likely in need of a victory to forge a route to postseason contention.
That includes Chris Buescher and Michael McDowell, who just finished second and third at Sonoma. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has seen a few close calls. Bubba Wallace and Brad Keselowski have both been in contention at drafting-focused tracks. Rookie Justin Haley has had competitive pace.
Others in contention include Ty Dillon, Cole Custer, Harrison Burton and Todd Gilliland. Corey LaJoie and Cody Ware could theoretically be in the running as well, but they’re outside of the top-30 in points – a designation necessary for playoff eligibility.
Those on the outside looking in will have many unique tracks that could provide an opportunity to crack the playoff field with a win down the stretch run of the regular season.
Pack racing is expected to return at both Atlanta and Daytona. Three road courses remain in Road America, Indianapolis Motor Speedway and Watkins Glen International. The remaining five tracks are all unique, tricky ovals, including Nashville Superspeedway, New Hampshire, Pocono Raceway, Michigan International Speedway and Richmond.
Can four more drivers win to create the first playoff field entirely field with winners? Will there be 17 or more winners that leave a victor on the outside looking in? Or will NASCAR see its traditional points battle determine the final title contenders when the Coke Zero Sugar 400 rolls around?
It’s impossible to predict. But regardless of how the final 10 rounds of the regular season plays out, it promises to be an adventurous path with numerous contenders.
