(Photo: Nigel Kinrade Photography)
By Aaron Bearden
While none of the trio managed to bring home the championship at year’s end, the 2018 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series season was a year defined by the ‘Big Three’ – Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex Jr.
The three drivers dominated headlines, combined to win 20 of the season’s 36 points-paying races and claimed 75% of the Championship 4 positions before Joey Logano surprised them with a title-clinching win at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
The 2019 season has yet to see a single lap of competition, but the Cup Series discussions have been dominated by a trio of its own in Truex, Kurt Busch and Daniel Suarez.
Each driver has made a high-profile move over the past two months, making up the bulk of Cup Series silly season with a host of changes facilitated by the loss of Furniture Row Racing and repercussions that followed.
Truex hopped from the now-defunct organization over to sister team Joe Gibbs Racing, replacing Suarez. That led the Mexican to a move of his own, taking over Busch’s No. 41 ride at Stewart-Haas Racing (SHR). Busch then followed with his own leap to Chip Ganassi Racing (CGR), securing the No. 1 entry formerly fielded for Jamie McMurray, who appears to be headed toward retirement from full-time action.
Each driver finds themself in a ride capable of contending for wins and, under the right circumstances, a title. But that’s where the similarities of their situations end. Busch, Truex and Suarez enter the season at different points of their careers, with varying things to prove over the next 12 months and beyond.
What’s at stake for each driver? Let’s take a deeper look.
Kurt Busch
What’s at stake?
Legacy.
The elder brother of Kyle Busch, Kurt has fallen short of his brother’s career resume over the past decade. But the Las Vegas native does have the most impressive stats of the 2019 movers – having won a title and 30 Cup Series races, including the 2017 Daytona 500.
Busch is likely a future NASCAR Hall of Fame inductee, known for succeeding with teams from Roush Fenway Racing and Team Penske to FRR and SHR. Truex has been a top-tier driver in recent years, but few have managed Busch’s consistent success over the last two decades. The 40-year-old has managed at least one win in 15 of the last 17 Cup seasons, and has been a constant threat to claim playoff positions even amid an occasionally tumultuous career off-track.
His time with SHR over, Busch heads to CGR for what might be the last marquee ride of his Cup career. He arrives at an organization that’s largely been a one-team show for the past five years.
McMurray brought CGR the team’s highest highs in a decade when he delivered wins in the Daytona 500 and Brickyard 400 back in 2010, but in recent years it’s been young phenom Kyle Larson carrying the torch for the organization. The Californian’s managed five wins and three playoff berths in the past three seasons, securing top-10s results in the standings each year.
McMurray managed a trio of playoff berths from 2015 through ’17 through sheer consistency. But he went winless for five straight seasons prior to his leave of the No. 1 and ended the year four positions or worse behind Larson in the standings in each of the past three seasons.
Busch has found himself in a similar position in recent years, trailing dominant SHR frontrunner Harvick while holding pace with teammates like Clint Bowyer, Aric Almirola and Tony Stewart. He heads to CGR with a chance to reverse course and remind the racing world of his talent.
Larson is considered to be among NASCAR’s elite talents. Can Busch hold pace with the prodigy in what might be his final top-tier Cup ride? Will the Nevadan be able to return the winless No. 1 team to victory lane?
If he accomplishes neither of the above Busch will still carry an impressive career resume out of the sport. But if he can accomplish one or both of them, he’ll add another accomplishment to his legacy.
Martin Truex Jr.
What’s at stake?
An opportunity to prove himself… Again.
Make no mistake – Truex and the team at FRR were a special group. As a one-car, Colorado-based organization, FRR managed to climb to the peak of the sport. The group earned 17 wins, three Championship 4 appearances and the 2017 title over the four seasons before shuttering operations after 2018.
As noted recently by Jeff Gluck, a large swath of that team made their way to JGR’s No. 19 team with Truex for 2019. But even with so many similar pieces, the new organization and rules package means the group will have to prove itself all over again in the coming year.
Truex arrives at a JGR team seeking to return to the dominance it showed in 2015 and ’16. During that stretch the organization earned 26 wins, a championship with Kyle Busch and notably placed all four teams in the Round of 8 in 2016 before a late crash at Homestead allowed Jimmie Johnson to shock the organization and claim his seventh Cup title.
The crash came at the expense of Carl Edwards, and it proved to be his final Cup Series start. He shockingly retired shortly before the 2017 season, leading to an early call-up of Xfinity Series champion Suarez.
What resulted was a disappointing two-year tenure for Suarez and a slight step down for JGR as a whole.
Busch continued to excel, earning 13 wins and a pair of Championship 4 berths over the ensuing two seasons. But Hamlin and Kenseth took a slight step back. Kenseth lost his ride to incoming prospect Erik Jones after a one-win campaign in 2017. Hamlin managed two wins that year, but followed with a winless season in 2018.
Suarez endured a pair of difficult years, going winless and finishing no better than 20th in points before losing his ride to Truex over the offseason.
Truex, crew chief Cole Pearn and the other various former FRR members on the No. 19 team enter 2019 having put up similar numbers to Busch in recent seasons. That provides hope that the 2017 Cup champion could become a second favorite for JGR even if the veteran Hamlin and prospect Jones fail to reach similar heights in the coming year.
With the stats they earned at FRR, Truex and Pearn have already established themselves as one of modern NASCAR’s iconic driver-crew chief pairings regardless of what they can manage with their new team. But if the duo can find a way to contend, excel and perhaps even win the title again with new surroundings, they’ll place themselves among the all-time greats.
Daniel Suarez
What’s at stake?
Reputation.
Six years ago a driver from JGR made a leap to a new team amid contention that his career might be a bust. He’d shown tremendous success in the Xfinity Series prior to his call-up, but managed just two wins without a playoff berth in four full-time seasons before being shipped off for the veteran Kenseth.
You might know that driver now – his name is Joey Logano. They don’t call him ‘Sliced Bread’ these days, but they do call him champion. He hoisted up the Cup Series trophy just two months ago.
That’s the same career turnaround the 27-year-old Suarez will look for in his new tenure with SHR.
Suarez progressed from the NASCAR Mexico Series and K&N Pro Series up the ladder and into the Xfinity Series full-time in 2015. His first year in the sport’s second tour was a quiet one, but Suarez managed a fifth-place finish in the standings after coming on strong in the stretch run of the season.
Suarez returned for his sophomore season in 2016 and pulled off the biggest accomplishment of his career to date, shocking dominant teammate Jones and others to secure the Xfinity Series title with a win at Homestead in the season finale. Edwards crashed out of a championship opportunity the following night, retired from the sport shortly thereafter and in doing so opened the door for Suarez’s unexpected rise to Cup in 2017.
Given his late addition to the field, Suarez entered his rookie year with limited expectations. Typical first-year struggles hit the Toyota prospect, resulting in just one top-five and a lone stage win en-route to 20th in the series standings.
The results were underwhelming, albeit expected of a rookie in the sport. But Suarez’s sophomore season didn’t fare any better. In fact, statistically it was a bit worse.
There were a few more highs. Suarez managed three top-fives, secured his first pole at Pocono Raceway and fell just short of beating out teammate Busch for the race win on the same weekend. But the second-year star’s overall numbers faded. He had three fewer top-10s (nine), his average finish dropped 2.3 positions (18.5) and he finished one position worse in the standings (21st) than he had in his rookie year.
Those results, paired with the potential for Toyota to lose Truex and Pearn with FRR’s exit, led to Suarez’s replacement at JGR. But he didn’t fall far. Suarez made a move seen as lateral at worst, that could potentially prove to be a leap up.
SHR was the dominant team of 2018, winning with all four drivers and placing the entire quartet in the Round of 8. Much like JGR in 2016, the group failed to bring home the championship at year’s end. But no organization was more consistently fast than the SHR Fords.
Just like Logano when he joined then-defending champion Brad Keselowski at Team Penske, Suarez is arriving at an organization with the necessary resources to contend for wins and titles. He has already proven his championship pedigree with the 2016 Xfinity Series title run. But SHR offers him a clean slate and an opportunity to show that he can manage the same feat at NASCAR’s top level.
Success may not come immediately. Suarez is only entering his third season. It took fellow young prospects Larson and Chase Elliott three years to earn their first Cup wins, while Austin Dillon and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. needed four and five seasons, respectively.
Expecting an immediate trip to victory lane wouldn’t be fair request of Suarez. But 2019 should provide a chance for him to prove his talent and make steps in the right direction.
A then-23-year-old Logano entered 2013 with a chip on his shoulder and managed a lone win and 11 top-fives en-route to his first playoff appearance. If Suarez can make similar improvements in the upcoming season, he should prove a worthy pickup for SHR and a valued member of the Cup Series garage.
