By Aaron Bearden
Analysis of seven-time Formula 1 champion Lewis Hamilton’s blockbuster move from Mercedes to Ferrari in 2025.
What Happened?
For the second time in his career, Lewis Hamilton is preparing to make a major team switch in Formula 1.
Ferrari announced Thursday that it has signed Hamilton on a multi-year contract, set to begin in 2025. He’ll replace Carlos Sainz, pairing with Charles Leclerc after the Monegasque driver signed a long-term contract extension last week.
“Scuderia Ferrari is pleased to announce that Lewis Hamilton will be joining the team in 2025, on a multi-year contract,” the team said in a simple statement.
Mercedes confirmed earlier in the day that Hamilton had activated a break clause in his contract to leave after 2024. He’d previously signed a multiyear extension with the organization in August 2023.
“I have had an amazing 11 years with this team and I’m so proud of what we have achieved together,” Hamilton said. “Mercedes has been part of my life since I was 13 years old. It’s a place where I have grown up, so making the decision to leave was one of the hardest decisions I have ever had to make. But the time is right for me to take this step and I’m excited to be taking on a new challenge.
“I will be forever grateful for the incredible support of my Mercedes family, especially Toto (Wolff, team principal) for his friendship and leadership and I want to finish on a high together. I am 100% committed to delivering the best performance I can this season and making my last year with the Silver Arrows, one to remember.”
Team principal Toto Wolff said Mercedes “accept Lewis’s decision to seek a fresh challenge, and our opportunities for the future are exciting to contemplate. But for now, we still have one season to go, and we are focused on going racing to deliver a strong 2024.”
It’s uncertain who Mercedes might sign to replace Hamilton or where Sainz will go in 2025.
“Following today’s news, Scuderia Ferrari and myself will part ways at the end of 2024,” Sainz said in a statement. “We still have a long season ahead of us and, like always, I will give my absolute best for the Team and for the Tifosi (Ferrari’s fans) all around the world.
“News about by future will be announced in due course.”
Analysis
Why make the move?
This is up there with the biggest surprises in recent F1 history. Hamilton had re-upped with Mercedes on a multi-year contact extension just last year, leading many to believe he would drive Silver Arrows until he retired from F1. Yet in just one year’s time he’ll be behind the wheel of a Ferrari.
On Ferrari’s side, this is a massive victory. The Prancing Horse is bringing in the most successful driver in the history of the sport. Hamilton has a record 103 wins, 104 poles and 197 podiums and is tied with Michael Schumacher for the most world titles (seven) of any driver.
He’ll replace Sainz – a strong competitor, but only a two-time race winner and arguable secondary driver to Leclerc. Pairing Hamilton with Leclerc gives Ferrari arguably the strongest driver lineup in F1, fielding two championship contenders that could conceivably win any week if their car is up to the task.
This obviously provides the risk of tension between the pair, like occurred with Hamilton and Nico Rosberg at Mercedes in the mid-2010s. But the net benefit of having them both in Ferrari cars is worth the potential headaches.
Ferrari bringing in Hamilton is a no-brainer for the team. But why would Hamilton dare to leave Mercedes?
There are a multitude of reasons. The 39-year old is surely coveted by Ferrari president John Elkann and worked with team principal Fred Vasseur during his junior racing career. He has a positive relationship with the Maranello squad and has often been linked to them in rumors over the years.
Moving over to Ferrari is a huge leap, but not an overly risky one. Hamilton has achieved tremendous success with Mercedes, but in recent years Ferrari has been right in step with the Brackley team as they’ve both trailed Red Bull.
The current regulations end after 2025, so Hamilton will run with Ferrari for just one year ahead of the new regulations in 2026. Mercedes has struggled through the first two years under the current ruleset. It did beat Ferrari in the constructors championship last year, but only just as Ferrari closed ground late in the year. Ferrari’s car also seemed to have the pace advantage, scoring seven poles to Mercedes’ one and claiming the lone win outside of Red Bull with Sainz in Singapore.
It seems unlikely that either team will make the massive leap to challenge Red Bull this year. So the real bet is on which squad might figure it out heading into the new regulations. Ferrari started stronger than Mercedes with the current regulations and seems to be trending to a more stable future with Vasseur at the helm.
Throw in the appeal of bringing Ferrari its first title since 2008 and the potential payday that could come with driving for the squad, and it’s easy to see why Hamilton would be tempted to make the move.
Hamilton can’t lose here. He’s a seven-time champion and the winningest driver in F1 history. At worst this will be a failed, but fun, late-career pairing. But if he can find success, beat Leclerc and lead Ferrari to the top of the standings, Hamilton will bolster his case to be F1’s greatest driver.
Where does Mercedes go from here?
This is a big blow to Mercedes. Losing its top driver — one it had invested heavily in on-track and off with programs like Hamilton’s Mission 44 diversity initiative — is going to hurt for some time.
But Mercedes isn’t likely to take a step back. It’ll reload and come prepared to beat Hamilton and Ferrari in 2025.
The organization still has a strong lead driver in George Russell. The Briton endured a difficult 2023, but remains a promising talent that can succeed at the highest level.
Finding a solid figure to pair with him shouldn’t be difficult. Ferrari and McLaren have done well recently to lock in Leclerc and Lando Norris, respectively, but numerous drivers will be out of their current contracts in 2025.
Sainz could be an option. Alex Albon has impressed at Williams. Veteran drivers like Fernando Alonso or Daniel Ricciardo may become available, or Mercedes could lean on an upcoming star.
Will it be someone of Hamilton’s caliber? No. The only other driver near his level, Max Verstappen, is firmly secure with Red Bull. But Mercedes will still likely field two drivers capable of winning races in 2025.
Hamilton’s legacy with Mercedes
While ending on a sour note, Hamilton’s time with Mercedes will forever be remembered for its immense success.
It’s easy to forget now, but Hamilton’s decision to leave McLaren for Mercedes was a controversial one at the time. Yet it’s become the greatest decision of his career.
In just 11 years together, Hamilton and Mercedes have secured six drivers championships, eight constructors titles and 82 wins. Their time together will sit among the greatest dynasties in the history of motorsports. Nothing can change that.
(Top photo: Steve Etherington / Mercedes-AMG Formula 1 Team)
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