(Photo: Nigel Kinrade Photography)
By Aaron Bearden
Another NASCAR season is nearly upon us… And I have questions.
A lot of them, in fact. And I’m sure you do, too.
This season kicks off an era of change for America’s top motorsports tour. The schedule’s been shuffled like a Spotify playlist with more changes planned for 2021, a new Cup car is on the horizon and the rules package has been altered for short tracks and road courses.
Joe Gibbs Racing’s been dominating, Jimmie Johnson’s retiring and a host of title contenders are entering the year with new crew chiefs.
There are a plethora of questions entering the 2020 NASCAR season.
Here are 10 that should be answered by year’s end.
1. How will the rules changes affect the racing?
Going into the 2019 offseason there appeared to be few rules changes on the table for 2020, but a compromise from various industry members saw a late change for short tracks and road courses announced in January.
After seeing subpar showings on both track types in 2019, NASCAR will effectively revert back to the 2017-18 lower downforce package for short tracks and road courses in 2020. The rear spoiler will be chopped down, as will the splitter overhang.
The move comes with a sigh of relief from many in the garage. Nine tracks on the new-look 2020 schedule stand to benefit from the changes – most notably the final two races at Martinsville Speedway and Phoenix Raceway.
This change means the “old” package might prove to be the most important for the tour’s top teams, because success with it will be critical for winning the championship.
But more importantly, it means those title-clinching races are potentially poised to deliver more entertainment than they managed in 2019.
2. How will the new schedules shake out?
The next year is going to be challenging for fans acclimated to the traditional Cup Series schedule.
Homestead-Miami Speedway isn’t the host of the finale any more. In fact, it’s been moved to March. Phoenix will close the year after a wild Round of 8 closer at Martinsville.
Pocono Raceway’s hosting a doubleheader weekend. Talladega Superspeedway and the Charlotte ROVAL are in the same playoff round. Bristol Motor Speedway and Darlington Raceway are in the postseason, too. Daytona International Speedway is the regular-season finale, while Indianapolis Motor Speedway’s going to try to make Independence Day weekend work.
It’s going to be a strange new journey from February through November, and the 2021 schedule — planned for an April release — has potential for even more changes.
After years of status quo with few alterations, these are wholesale schedule shifts that are likely to change the overall feel of the tour. So buckle in, enjoy the Daytona 500 and then prepare to embrace change.
3. Can anyone stop Joe Gibbs Racing?
Joe Gibbs Racing had an all-time great season in 2019. In a year dedicated to the lost JD Gibbs, Toyota’s top team claimed 19 of the 36 points-paying races — including the Daytona 500 — placed three drivers in the Championship 4 and secured both the manufacturer’s championship and drivers title with Kyle Busch.
The months since have gone just as well for JGR. Busch made his Rolex 24 at Daytona debut and launched a new energy dink. Gibbs himself was inducted into the NASCAR Hall of Fame alongside former drivers Tony Stewart and Bobby Labonte on Friday, and followed it up with a trip to the Super Bowl on Sunday.
Life couldn’t be much better for this team, but the pressures of a new season will begin this weekend with the Busch Clash.
With a similar rule package at most tracks, JGR seems geared for more success this year. The onus is on the rest of the field to find a way to rise up and challenge them.
4. What happens in free agency?
NASCAR’s constant game of musical chairs saw a few surprises in 2019. The Big Three from the Xfinity Series each moved people out of rides, Daniel Suarez found himself out of a top-tier opportunity on the last weekend of the year and Matt DiBenedetto jumped to Wood Brothers Racing after Paul Menard’s quiet retirement.
The 2020 silly season figures to be just as intriguing.
Jimmie Johnson is retiring, which means a ride is soon to be open at Hendrick Motorsports. That comes in a time where drivers like Brad Keselowski and Kyle Larson are expected to test the market.
Christopher Bell will contest his rookie season with Leavine Family Racing, but given his talent there’s the chance that Joe Gibbs Racing works to free up space for him in 2021. Veterans of the tour are continuing on, but the threat of a retirement announcement or lost ride always looms large.
It’s difficult to predict what will happen in silly season, but change is inevitable. It’ll be intriguing to watch opportunities come and go over the course of the year.
5. Can Chevrolet bounce back?
It’s been a rough few years for Chevrolet.
Since Jimmie Johnson hoisted up his seventh Sprint Cup trophy in 2016, no Bowtie has managed to qualify for the Championship 4. The group has won just 20 of 108 races and had seven of 30 top-10 points finishers.
Hope would seem to be on the horizon. Chevrolet teams will compete in the new Camaro ZL1 1LE starting this weekend at Daytona, and its young roster of drivers like Chase Elliott and William Byron have shown promise and playoff potential as they’ve gained experience.
This is also slated to be Johnson’s last year, so the manufacturer’s strength will determine whether he has the potential to win and contend for a record eighth championship in his final season.
Succeeding in the manufacturer’s first year with a new car won’t be easy, but showing consistent pace and making a few trips to victory lane would be a sign of progress from the Bowtie Brigade.
6. Can MTJ keep winning with a new crew chief?
Few driver-crew chief pairings in the history of NASCAR have had as much success at Martin Truex Jr. and Cole Pearn. From their time at Furniture Row Racing through a leap to JGR, the dynamic duo have proven to be a constant threat for wins and titles.
Truex had just two wins in nine full seasons prior to his time with Pearn. In the ensuing five years, the duo racked up 24 victories, four Championship 4 berths and the 2017 Cup championship.
Assumptions were that the successful pairing would continue on to 2020, but that changed when Pearn surprised the paddock and stepped away from racing in December. Now Truex will be left to prove himself with a new crew chief in former lead engineer James Small.
Can Truex continue to win and contend for the championship with a new signal-caller? Possibly.
At 40 years old, Truex is near the prime of his career. But first-year crew chiefs can often struggle. Ray Evernham didn’t win in his first year with Jeff Gordon, and recent Hall of Fame inductee Kirk Shelmerdine sat atop the box for six years and four drivers before he broke through with Ricky Rudd.
Expectations are high at JGR, and this provides Truex an opportunity to prove he can win without Pearn. But the No. 19 team may need to exercise some patience as Truex and Small mesh and learn to work together during the race.
7. How will Team Penske handle the crew chief shakeup?
In the midst of acquiring Indianapolis Motor Speedway and the NTT IndyCar Series, Roger Penske’s Team Penske snuck out a press release with surprising news – the organization was shaking up its driver-crew chief pairings for 2020.
Former championship-winning duos of Brad Keselowski-Paul Wolfe and Joey Logano-Todd Gordon are no more. Logano will inherit Wolfe, while Gordon will shift to the No. 12 of Ryan Blaney. Keselowski will take Blaney’s former crew chief, Jeremy Bullins.
The move came as a relative surprise given that all three Penske teams won and finished in the top-10 in points in 2019. Keselowski and Wolfe were the longest-tenured pair in the garage, and Logano had just won the title with Gordon a year earlier.
Each pairing has potential for success. Only time will tell if the moves prove positive or calamitous.
8. Who replaces the Big Three?
The 2019 Xfinity Series season was a thriller, with Christopher Bell, Cole Custer and eventual champion Tyler Reddick battling it out for wins from Daytona through the final laps in Miami.
But now they’re all gone – up to Cup with a trio of new deals. It’s time for someone else to step up.
Who will it be?
Justin Allgaier brings veteran experience and consistent pace. Chase Briscoe, Noah Gragson and Austin Cindric showed promise in 2019, and Cindric has another road course in Indianapolis to potentially build up a playoff cushion.
Joe Gibbs Racing has a group of young prospects hoping to make the next step in Riley Herbst, Brandon Jones and Harrison Burton. Kaulig Racing has surprise Cup winner Justin Haley and the hard-charging Ross Chastain to chase the team’s first title.
Bell, Custer and Reddick combined to win 21 of 33 races in 2019. Someone else is going to have to step up and earn those victories this year.
9. How will added positions affect the Truck playoffs?
Matt Crafton surprised the Gander RV & Outdoors Truck Series field to score his third title last season despite never winning a race. But before he could claim the championship he had to narrowly survive the regular season.
Wins from distant contenders like Tyler Ankrum and Ross Chastain shortened the number of playoff positions available on points in 2019, forcing Crafton to sweat out the regular-season finale despite sitting second in the standings as Kyle Busch Motorsports’ Todd Gilliland and Harrison Burton were eliminated.
Whether prompted by that or other factors, NASCAR elected to bump the Truck Series playoff field up from eight to 10 competitors in 2020. That means two additional drivers will sneak into the postseason, and the second round will see four contenders eliminated from title contention.
The repercussions of the move remain to be seen. Additional positions should theoretically make the regular season less intense, but the additional participants could add pressure once the postseason arrives.
10. What becomes of ARCA?
The NASCAR K&N Pro Series is so more… By name, anyways. After acquiring the ARCA Menards Series in 2018, NASCAR has essentially melded the midwestern tour with its eastern and western development tours.
ARCA will have four championships – the standard ARCA Menards Series, ARCA Menards Series East and West, and a special ARCA Showdown Series that pits the stars of all three tours against each other for 10 races.
Each tour has a unique schedule, with the new Showdown stretching from Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course to Memphis International Raceway.
The decision to streamline the three divisions was made to provide a clear path for upcoming prospects and encourage veteran participation. Its success or failure could determine whether the new-look ARCA can manage to grow and sustain in 2020 and beyond.
Other things to watch for: Jimmie Johnson’s last year, the 2021 Cup car, implementation of the new Cup sponsor model, Pocono’s doubleheader, the Big Three’s Rookie of the Year battle, Hailie Deegan’s first year with Ford, Matt DiBenedetto vs. Christopher Bell (his replacement), the SMI-MLS battle at Fairgrounds Nashville, Indianapolis Motor Speedway’s first year under Roger Penske.
