The 2024 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs have arrived.
For the 11th time in the sport’s history, a field of 16 contenders has been formed and given 10 races to chase a Cup Series title. Included this year is a top contender issued a waiver for missing a race, a regular season champion for a team in search of its first title and a trio of Ford drivers in with surprise wins. There are two playoff veterans at Joe Gibbs Racing, a third JGR driver out to make his third-straight Championship 4 and a young teammate new to the playoffs at this level.
All four Hendrick Motorsports drivers are in the field. Team Penske put its trio into the playoffs and added an affiliate in Wood Brothers Racing. RFK Racing and Trackhouse Racing each have one of their two drivers in, but neither are the ones that made the company’s deepest runs in 2023.
There’s a lot to digest heading into what’s sure to be an unpredictable playoff, with two road courses, a pair of superspeedways and challenging ovals like Bristol Motor Speedway, Martinsville Speedway and finale host Phoenix Raceway. Before the playoffs get underway, here’s a look at the 16 drivers chasing the 2024 crown.
1) Kyle Larson
Wins: 4 (Las Vegas Motor Speedway, Kansas Speedway, Sonoma Raceway, Indianapolis Motor Speedway)
Playoff Points: 40
Best Points Finish: Champion (2021)
How He Got Here: By stacking up victories. Larson won three races into the year in Sin City and added a trio of triumphs over the spring and summer to emerge as a top title contender. He missed out on the Coca-Cola 600 after choosing to run the rain-delayed Indianapolis 500 and fell one point short of the regular season title, but avenged that day with a Brickyard 400 win and still rolled into the playoffs with the highest point total.
Championship Odds: High
Not everything has gone to plan for Larson this year. He had a tough run in the Chili Bowl, sped on pit road during the Indy 500 and threw away a few potential Cup wins during the regular season. But this is still arguably the best driver in America running with a proven, title-winning team and a points advantage on the field. The No. 5 squad is the team to beat.
2) Christopher Bell
Wins: 3 (Phoenix Raceway, Charlotte Motor Speedway, New Hampshire Motor Speedway)
Playoff Points: 32
Best Points Finish: Third (2022)
How He Got Here: By maximizing his best days, Bell suffered six DNFs and was outside of the top five in points for the bulk of the season, but scored three wins to position himself well for another playoff push.
Championship Odds: High
The DNFs and general inconsistency are enough to cause concern, but Bell is a top driver when things go to plan. The Oklahoman has three wins, finished sixth or better in four of the final five regular season races and excels at many of the track in the playoffs. He’s made back-to-back Championship 4 runs and is positioned well for another, which would make him a title contender at one of the tracks (Phoenix) where he’s already won this year. This could be the season for Bell to make the next step.
3) Tyler Reddick
Wins: 2 (Talladega Superspeedway, Michigan International Speedway)
Playoff Points: 28
Best Points Finish: Sixth (2023)
How He Got Here: With growth. Reddick has been positioned as a burgeoning star since he arrived in the Cup Series, but the two-time Xfinity Series champion finally reached the next level this summer with 23XI Racing. Reddick notched two wins and had a stretch during the summer where he finished third or better in five of six races. That vaulted Reddick to the top of the standings, which he held to secure the regular season championship.
Championship Odds: High
No one’s been running as consistently good as Reddick and the No. 45 team for the past several months. He’s yet to make a Championship 4 run in his young Cup career, but is positioned well to do so this fall. The only question: If he gets to Phoenix, can Reddick score a win at the track? He has two third-place finishes but his other seven starts at the track have ended with finishes of 10th or worse.
4) William Byron
Wins: 3 (Daytona International Speedway, Circuit of the Americas, Martinsville Speedway)
Playoff Points: 22
Best Points Finish: Third (2023)
How He Got Here: With a win in the opening race. Byron claimed the Daytona 500 for the first time to lock himself into the postseason at the start of the year. He went on to win two more times in the opening eight races, establishing himself as a title contender before the end of spring.
Championship Odds: Average
This one’s tricky. On paper Byron should be a massive contender. He has three wins, a solid playoff point haul and just went to the Championship 4 last year. But the No. 24 team’s been struggling over the past several months. Byron has more finishes outside of the top 25 (six) than inside the top five (five) since his last win at Martinsville. That doesn’t bode well for a deep playoff run.
5) Ryan Blaney
Wins: 2 (Iowa Speedway, Pocono Raceway)
Playoff Points: 18
Best Points Finish: Champion (2023)
How He Got Here: With a couple key wins. Blaney hasn’t had the championship defense he wanted, fading as far back as 12th in points heading into June. But he scored a couple summer wins at Iowa and Pocono to lock up a playoff spot and started to come into form, rising back up to the top five by the end of the regular season.
Championship Odds: Above Average
Blaney’s had a difficult stretch since NASCAR returned from its Olympic break, with an average finish of 23.75 in the past four races. But his No. 12 Ford’s had speed and this playoff stretch tends to line up well for Blaney. It won’t be easy to get back to the Championship 4. But if he can, Blaney showed last fall that he can capitalize and turn the opportunity into a title.
6) Denny Hamlin
Wins: 3 (Bristol Motor Speedway, Richmond Raceway, Dover Motor Speedway)
Playoff Points: 15
Best Points Finish: Second (2010)
How He Got Here: With a major spring surge. Hamlin won a memorable tire-conservation showdown at Bristol in March and followed it up with triumphs at Richmond and Dover before May. He didn’t win again from there, but was rising into regular season title contention before a shocking late penalty tied to the handling of his Bristol-winning engine by Toyota dropped Hamlin to the back half of the top 10 in points
Championship Odds: Above Average
Had he avoided the major penalty, there’s a chance Hamlin would be among the top title contenders this fall. As it stands, the veteran is still well-positioned to make a deep postseason run based on his pace and experience. But the loss of potential playoff points leaves Hamlin vulnerable if he makes a mistake or just catches bad luck at the wrong time. That could be the difference.
7) Chase Elliott
Wins: 1 (Texas Motor Speedway)
Playoff Points: 14
Best Points Finish: Champion (2020)
How He Got Here: Quietly. After missing the playoffs in an injury-and-suspension-impacted 2023 campaign, Elliott picked up a spring win at Texas and stoically marched to the top of the standings through sheer consistency just before the Olympic break. He couldn’t maintain the top spot, but came home third to bring a healthy influx of bonus points into his playoff return.
Championship Odds: Average
Based on his team’s consistency, it’s easy to envision Elliott making a stealthy run into the Round of 8 and potentially even the Championship 4. But this team hasn’t had race-winning speed on many occasions this year, so rising to the moment at Phoenix or when necessary beforehand might prove challenging.
8) Brad Keselowski
Wins: 1 (Darlington Raceway)
Playoff Points: 8
Best Points Finish: Champion (2012)
How He Got Here: With his first win as an owner-driver. After being narrowly overshadowed by Chris Buescher in his first two years with RFK Racing, Keselowski picked up a victory in the spring Darlington race to lock himself into the playoff field. From there the veteran stuck around the back-half of the top 10 in points, ultimately ending the regular season in eighth.
Championship Odds: Average
This is a run that could go either way. Keselowski is a veteran of NASCAR’s elimination playoff era and supplied many of the format’s iconic early moments. But he also knows how to craft consistent finishes and grind out a Round of 8 run without much fanfare. There’s a good chance he could do that this fall, but it might be his ceiling, much like it was for Buescher in 2023. Cracking the Championship 4 and securing a title would require a step up from the No. 6 team. I’m not saying that’s impossible, but it won’t be easy.
9) Joey Logano
Wins: 1 (Nashville Superspeedway)
Playoff Points: 7
Best Points Finish: Champion (2018, 2022)
How He Got Here: With some herculean efforts of fuel saving. Amid an atypically-poor season – particularly for an even year, where Logano traditionally flourishes – the two-time champion managed to stretch fuel where others failed in a multi-overtime finish at Nashville to lock up a playoff spot. It’s a good thing, too, because he wouldn’t have made it on points from 15th given the winners this year.
Championship Odds: Below Average
If it were any other driver or team with this stats, the inclination would be to write them off. And perhaps we should. But Logano’s always capable of making a run and the field’s pretty open this year. You always have to give the No. 22 team a chance – even if it’s a small one. That said, it would be a surprise to see this group in the Championship 4.
10) Austin Cindric
Wins: 1 (World Wide Technology Raceway)
Playoff Points: 7
Best Points Finish: 12th (2022)
How He Got Here: With a shock win. Cindric only had two top fives in the regular season, but one of them turned out to be a victory at Gateway. The third-year driver had entered that race 20th in the standings. He left it locked into the playoff field.
Championship Odds: Low
With respect to Cindric, it’s hard to foresee the No. 2 team making much noise this fall. Cindric only has three top 10s through 26 races. He only has two DNFs and completes most races, but his average finish (20.6) isn’t going to be enough to cut it against the sport’s best. It’s time to step up if this group truly wants to make a statement this fall.
11) Daniel Suarez
Wins: 1 (Atlanta Motor Speedway)
Playoff Points: 6
Best Points Finish: 10th (2022)
How He Got Here: With an early win. Suarez got the best of Atlanta’s instant classic, three-wide finish to lock himself into the playoffs two races into the season. The Mexican star generally lingered in the back quarter of the top 20 in points from there, but it didn’t matter.
Championship Odds: Low
Given the abundance of talent at Trackhouse Racing right now – there are three slots filled and Connor Zilisch is on the rise – Suarez could really use a deep playoff run to showcase his ability and worth to the team. But this group’s general ceiling outside of superspeedways has been in the back half of the top 10. Suarez has experience and could sneak through a round or two, but it’s difficult to envision him making the Championship 4.
12) Alex Bowman
Wins: 1 (Chicago)
Playoff Points: 5
Best Points Finish: Sixth (2020)
How He Got Here: With an unexpected win. It’s not that Bowman winning at all is unexpected, of course. This is a talented driver and one of NASCAR’s best organizations. But Bowman’s lone victory coming at the Chicago street course isn’t a result many would have anticipated given the unique track and presence of a ringer like Shane van Gisbergen. But Bowman rose to the occasion after SVG was crashed and secured a playoff-clinching win.
Championship Odds: Below Average
Bowman’s playoff aspirations will hinge one whether his No. 48 team can rise to the occasion. On his best day, Bowman’s been capable of strong top fives. The Arizonian’s six thus far are tied for the third most in his career. But he has seven finishes outside of the top 20, too. A hot streak could make Bowman a dark horse, but he hasn’t even cracked the top 15 in the past five races, so consider this writer skeptical.
13) Chase Briscoe
Wins: 1 (Darlington Raceway)
Playoff Points: 5
Best Points Finish: Ninth (2022)
How He Got Here: With a Hail Mary. Briscoe and Stewart-Haas Racing seemed poised to wrap up the company’s final season without a playoff berth. But the Hoosier struck big with his most memorable drive to date in the regular season finale to leave Darlington with a spot in the playoff field.
Championship Odds: Low
Look: If the Briscoe that showed up to Darlington comes back for the playoffs, the No. 14 team could be dangerous. Briscoe’s best runs have often come at flat ovals and superspeedways. There’s at least one of those track types present in each round, so it’s possible Briscoe could sneak a streak of solid runs together and squeak through the opening rounds like he did in 2022. But the margins are slim and this group hasn’t been consistent. Briscoe will need to get hot to be a genuine contender.
14) Harrison Burton
Wins: 1 (Daytona International Speedway)
Playoff Points: 5
Best Points Finish: 27th (2022)
How He Got Here: With a surprise win. Burton dodged the typical chaos of the Daytona summer race and rode a late push from Parker Retzlaff past Kyle Busch to score a shock win for Wood Brothers Racing and salvage his season with a playoff berth from 34th in the standings.
Championship Odds: Low
In the history of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, 16-seeded teams have a record of 2-154 against the tournament’s top seeds. Considering he was solidly last among full-time drivers before his Daytona shocker, it’s fair to consider Burton’s odds of advancing to the Round of 12 to be pretty similar. Crazier things have happened in NASCAR, but even advancing beyond the opening round would be a big surprise for the Cup Series’ biggest playoff underdog in history.
15) Ty Gibbs
Wins: None
Playoff Points: 4
Best Points Finish: 18th (2023)
How He Got Here: With consistency. The Cup Series’ top sophomore deserves major credit. He’s yet to win at NASCAR’s top level, but Gibbs put together a solid regular season with seven top fives, 11 top 10s and just two DNFs to secure one of just two playoff positions available on points.
Championship Odds: Below Average
Just making the playoffs in his second full-time season is a major accomplishment for Gibbs, but following it up with a deep postseason run might prove tricky. Gibbs has the ability to run in the top five and even challenge for wins if all goes well. But will the young star be able to step up against the sport’s best when it counts most? History indicates it’s unlikely. A Round of 12 run is likely and the Round of 8 is up for grabs, but the lack of a win and solid playoff points could keep Gibbs from progressing further.
16) Martin Truex Jr.
Wins: None
Playoff Points: 4
Best Points Finish: Champion (2017)
How He Got Here: Nervously. Just like in 2022, Truex seemingly did everything but find victory lane. He came close a few times along the way, but never quite strung the perfect day together. That left the 2017 champ vulnerable when he suffered a string of poor finishes during the summer stretch, dropping from second to 10th in the standings. Truex ended up making the postseason by just six points after crashing out early in Darlington.
Championship Odds: Below Average
It pains me to say this, but Truex and the No. 19 team don’t look like title contenders heading into the retiring veteran’s final playoff run. Four months ago he was in the hunt for the regular season trophy. But Truex has just two top 10s in the past 14 races, where he has an average finish of 23.9. Mix in the general lack of playoff points after he dropped in the standings and you’re left with what could be an early playoff exit for Truex this fall.
(Top Photo: Nigel Kinrade Photography)
