(Photo: Nigel Kinrade Photography)
By Aaron Bearden
After 16 races and various swings, the NASCAR Gander Outdoors Truck Series is officially set for the playoffs.
A slew of surprise winners and failure to win from preseason contenders like Todd Gilliland, Harrison Burton, Ben Rhodes and Sheldon Creed saw the playoff picture shaken up, with a Field of 8 that’s as varied as it is unpredictable. Veterans and champions will square off against series newcomers and underdog teams.
Here’s a close look at the story of each playoff contender’s path to the seven-race postseason, and an evaluation of their odds to bring home a championship at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Take any odds with a grain of salt this year – forecasting the Truck Series is as challenging as any postseason in NASCAR’s brief playoff history.
1) Brett Moffitt
Wins: Two (Iowa, Chicagoland)
Playoff Points: 12
How He Got Here: With another impressive run. Moffitt’s championship defense saw him rack up nine top-fives and two victories in the regular season. Throw in a pair of stage wins and a second-place points finish, and Moffitt rolls into the playoffs with a series-best 22 playoff points.
Championship Odds: High.
This season’s Truck Series playoffs are as unpredictable as any in the tour’s brief postseason history. But if anyone figures to be a favorite, it’s probably the defending champion that enters with the points lead. If Moffitt can avoid any issues, another postseason run is there for the taking.
2) Grant Enfinger
Wins: Zero
Playoff Points: 19
How He Got Here: With consistency. Enfinger didn’t have the pace to bring home multiple race victories, but he managed a 7.6 average finish that trailed only teammate Matt Crafton while rolling to a handful of stage victories and the regular season championship along the way.
Championship Odds: Above Average
Enfinger’s 19 playoff points make him a strong contender to make it to Homestead-Miami Speedway with a chance at the title. But what will his No. 98 team make of the opportunity if they get there? History shows it takes winning speed to bring home the title in the finale, and this team hasn’t quite found that yet. The path to a Championship 4 berth is laid out before Enfinger, but the ability to win will be key to the Alabamian securing his first NASCAR national series title.
3: Stewart Friesen
Wins: One (Eldora)
Playoff Points: 14
How He Got Here: Consistent pace through the regular season helped Friesen stay on the right side of the bubble in points, but it was his win in the penultimate regular season race at Eldora Speedway that finally clinched the Canadian a spot in the postseason field.
Championship Odds: Average
The same weakness Enfinger’s No. 98 team suffers from has also afflicted Friesen’s No. 52 Halmar Friesen Racing group. The team has strong pace, but often struggles to seal the deal with the race on the line. If Friesen can find a way to victory lane on asphalt, he’ll have a strong chance to win the whole thing. But until this team shows that ability, it’s fair to judge this group with a bit of skepticism.
4: Austin Hill
Wins: Two (Daytona, Michigan)
Playoff Points: 12
How He Got Here: With a triumph in the season-opening race at Daytona International Speedway. Hill never had to worry about missing the playoffs.
Championship Odds: Below Average
A run like Saturday’s at Michigan International Speedway would give Hill and Hattori Racing’s No. 16 team a strong chance to score another championship. But the team has rarely shown that level of pace – Hill’s four top-fives to date are less than half the totals of the postseason’s top contenders. That makes this group an outsider entering the playoffs. But one consistent run of pace could change things in their favor, as they just proved on Saturday.
5: Ross Chastain
Wins: Three (Two which count toward the points standings – Gateway and Pocono.)
Playoff Points: 12
How He Got Here: By making the most of his circumstances. A lost opportunity at Chip Ganassi Racing led Chastain to Niece Motorsports in the Truck Series among other rides. He started the year eyeing up another playoff berth in the Xfinity Series with JD Motorsports, but early pace and a win with Niece convinced Chastain to forego his Xfinity points and commit to the Truck Series. Two additional wins (and another potential one that was DQed) later Chastain finds himself aiming for a Truck Series crown.
Championship Odds: Above Average
After spending most of the season well behind his fellow competitors, Chastain now pulls even for the first time this year. And while he may not consider himself a favorite, the No. 45 team’s winning pace makes the Floridian a serious threat for a Championship 4 triumph this fall.
6: Matt Crafton
Wins: Zero
Playoff Points: 11
How He Got Here: With consistent speed. Crafton rarely had race-winning pace, but made the most of his opportunities for six top-fives and a series-best 14 top-10s. That was enough make the playoffs on points, even as surprise wins trickled in throughout the summer.
Championship Odds: Below Average
Take Enfinger’s lack of winning pace and remove the playoff point advantage and you have his teammate, Crafton. The two-time champion’s experience and consistency could make the difference and yield a strong run, but this team will need to find a way to make the next step if it wants to secure a title.
7: Johnny Sauter
Wins: One (Dover)
Playoff Points: Nine
How He Got Here: And early win at Dover gave Sauter an expected postseason berth. What most couldn’t expect was that he would actually need that win to advance. The 2016 champion struggled for the rest of the year, dropping down the standings amid a summer struggle.
Championship Odds: Below Average
You can never write off a cagey veteran like Sauter, but his No. 13 team’s seemed to be off-pace for the majority of the year. Until they show something more akin to Sauter’s previous playoff runs, he’ll be among the bottom the playoff contenders.
8: Tyler Ankrum
Wins: One (Kentucky)
Playoff Points: Five
How He Got Here: With a shocking win. Ankrum needed an age waiver to be playoff eligible early in the year, had to start-and-park twice to keep that eligibility alive in the early summer and had only a distant chance after that. But a breakthrough victory at Kentucky made the struggle worth the effort, elevating the 2018 K&N Pro Series East champ into the playoffs.
Championship Odds: Average
It’s difficult to gauge Ankrum’s No. 17 team coming into the postseason. They appear to be a true wild card. Ankrum was quiet in the spring months with the team, but he has three top-three finishes in his past six starts with DGR-Crosley. That pace could yield a serious playoff run. The group just needs to minimize finishes like 13th (Chicagoland Speedway) and 25th (Michigan International Speedway) so they don’t fall victim to an early elimination.
