(Photo: Nigel Kinrade Photography)
By Aaron Bearden
The 2023 NASCAR Cup Series season is about to get underway. In just over a week, a field of 40 contenders will take the green flag for the Daytona 500 to kick off another year of high-speed, stock car action.
And about four hours later, weather pending, we’ll know the year’s first likely playoff participant. I say ‘likely’ solely because the sheer number of winners in 2022 makes winning no longer feel like a guaranteed way to make the field.
From there the year will be all about the wins and playoff bids that come with them. Spring optimism will transition to summer panic as teams work to lock in a playoff berth. Then will come the fall, where 16 contenders fight for the chance to make their playoff dreams come true.
With the process of crowning a champion soon to get underway, I’ve taken an educated guess at who might make postseason runs in 2023. Take all of this with as many grains of salt as you can muster, because anything from an unfortunate concussion to a swing of other winners could derail one or more of these predictions.
With that said, here are my predictions for the 2023 Cup playoffs, with some explanations to help them make sense.
The Playoff Field
Okay, let’s start with the basics. Which 16 drivers are going to make the playoff field this year?
Who knows, right?
Actually forecasting this is an immense challenge. The NASCAR Cup Series is heading into the second year of the Next Gen car after a season filled to the brim with parity. It’s not inconceivable for any of the full-time contenders to win a race during the regular season, locking up a playoff spot in the process.
I can almost guarantee that a surprise winner or two will creep in and mix things up. Some of the favorites to make the playoffs are also likely to struggle or, like Martin Truex Jr. last year, get left out of the postseason field without a win.
I’ve tried to predict some of these surprises and shifts. But first, let’s start with what I consider playoff guarantees.
The Locks
Drivers: Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson, Joey Logano
Given their recent performances, I think it’s safe to assume that Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson and Joey Logano will make it to the playoffs with ease. Not only are these three the most recent Cup Series champions, but they’re also consistent winners. The odds of them failing to get to victory lane in the first 26 races is slim. But even if they go winless, there’s a chance they’ll be in contention to advance on points.
With those three out of the way, it’s time to roll through some of the likely, if uncertain, contenders.
Familiar Faces
Drivers: Martin Truex Jr., Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, William Byron, Alex Bowman
It’s conceivable that anyone this group could miss the playoffs with enough winners and chaos, but each driver is a consistent postseason qualifier likely to make their way back into the mix this year.
Martin Truex Jr. is coming into the season after a Busch Light Clash win and is usually a top-five points contender. Kevin Harvick is retiring, which could be a distraction, but is typically good for at least a win or two during the summer stretch. Denny Hamlin struggled early in 2022 but wins often. Ryan Blaney went winless in 2022 (All-Star Race withstanding), but can beat the field anywhere and consistently earns good finishes.
William Byron and Alex Bowman are a smidge riskier, but each have reasons to believe in them. Byron has shown the capability to win and, at just 25 years old, is still getting better each year. Bowman can be inconsistent, but has found a way to the playoffs each year with Hendrick Motorsports. He also has a promising crew chief pairing with team newcomer Blake Harris, who guided Michael McDowell to arguably his best Cup season in 2022.
These two safer groupings give us nine members of our 16-driver playoff field. Now onto some understandable, but less certain, predictions.
Can They Do It Again?
Drivers: Ross Chastain, Christopher Bell, Chase Briscoe
Ross Chastain, Christopher Bell and Chase Briscoe were the newest stars to make deep runs in last year’s playoffs. While there’s potential for their teams to regress, I’m giving them the benefit of the doubt and assuming they can replicate some of their 2022 success this year.
Chastain was one of the sport’s top drivers last season, so one would hope he can win again this year. Bell was arguably Joe Gibbs Racing’s best contender, ending the year with a pair of clutch playoff-advancing wins to score his first Championship 4 berth.
Those two feel like safe bets to lock into the playoff field again this year. Briscoe is a bit riskier — he really struggled at times in 2022 — but the Hoosier won once, could have picked up wins at least two other times and mounted a consistent playoff campaign. If he can carry that momentum forward, Briscoe could be in for a big year in 2023.
With this trio locked in, let’s take a look at my riskier picks for the year.
The Other Guys
Drivers: Tyler Reddick, Bubba Wallace, A.J. Allmendinger, Ryan Preece
Okay, so here’s the deal. These picks are probably the least likely ones to advance. They’re all calculated risks. But I think I can justify them on a case-by-case basis.
Reddick: There’s a little concern over how Reddick will mesh with his new organization at 23XI Racing. But on paper this is a three-win playoff driver joining a race-winning playoff team with strong support from Toyota. I like the odds of Reddick finding victory lane again in 2023.
Wallace: This has to be the year, right? Wallace and the No. 23 team have been building for the past two seasons, running up front with growing consistency. They’ve even won in each season, albeit too late in the year for the results to have playoff implications for Wallace. Throw in a competent teammate in Reddick and the off-track guidance of Kurt Busch, and everything seems to be aligned for Wallace to mount a serious playoff push this year.
Allmendinger: The obvious thinking here is that Allmendinger is a road course ace running a schedule full of left-and-right-turns. The less obvious thinking is that Allmendinger was 10th in average finish (15.4) during his 18 starts last year and was in contention to win in the final laps at Homestead-Miami Speedway. This veteran could make the postseason with wins or consistency.
Preece: I don’t want to read too much into Preece’s run at the Clash. That track was tailor-made for the Modified veteran’s skillset. But Preece is going to be driving aggressively to prove he belongs in the Cup Series. This could be a long shot. But if his No. 41 team gives him an opportunity to win, I think Preece will make good on it.
Those are my 16 playoff contenders, with a few chances taken but mostly safe picks. I want to move on from here and roll through my playoff predictions, but before I do, let’s address the elephant(s) in the room.
I know what you’re probably saying in your head right now. “But Aaron, what about (insert driver here)!”
The truth is that you could make a case for any full-time Cup driver to score a win this season. Even a traditional back marker like Cody Ware could shock the field in a drafting-focused race.
But I’ll address the some of the key exceptions:
Kyle Busch: This is my riskiest omission. Busch is a championship-caliber veteran looking to prove he still has what it takes, and I think he does. But winning is immensely challenging and it could take time for Busch and Richard Childress Racing to mesh. I think he could have better statistics than in 2022, but go winless in the regular season and miss the playoffs.
Austin Dillon: I feel similar about Dillon. Having Busch to push him could be excellent for the 2018 Daytona 500 champion. But it wouldn’t surprise me if Dillon goes winless and narrowly misses the postseason.
Daniel Suarez: This one hurt to leave off. Suarez had a breakout season in 2022. Why wouldn’t he continue that growth into 2023? I think he easily could, but I had to leave some contenders off the list and, in the end, Suarez didn’t feel like a sure thing for me.
Brad Keselowski and Chris Buescher: RFK Racing fans, go ahead and boo me for this one. I think this organization could continue to make strides in 2023 after their Bristol Night Race win last September. But I just don’t trust either driver to get to victory lane again during the regular season.
Erik Jones and Noah Gragson: Similar logic is coming into play for this duo. Jones could lead Legacy Motor Club to the front of the field in 2023, but I don’t think the road there’s going to be easy. Gragson has potential to be a future star, but he’s still young and learning right now.
Austin Cindric: Take out his Daytona 500 surprise and Cindric wouldn’t have been a playoff driver last year. He was hovering in the 14th-16th range in the standings before the playoffs. Cindric has the potential to become a big name down the road, but I anticipate some sophomore struggles.
Aric Almirola: The consistency is typically there for Almirola. But he really struggled down the stretch in 2022 and rarely wins at a time when winning is more valuable than ever. I could eat crow here, but I don’t see Almirola making the playoffs again.
Ty Gibbs: The talent is there. I think we all know that. But Gibbs is entering his rookie year and doing so under horrible personal circumstances after what happened last year. We need to offer Gibbs grace and give him time to grow, learn and process. I have high hopes but low expectations for the No. 54 team this year.
Now then, with those addressed, let’s get onto the playoff predictions.
Round of 16
Advancing: Elliott, Chastain, Logano, Blaney, Bell, Larson, Truex, Hamlin. Byron, Bowman, Wallace, Reddick
Eliminated: Harvick, Allmendinger, Preece, Briscoe
The Round of 12 is typically a safer one for genuine title threats. Those eliminated are usually the surprise winners from the season and weaker contenders overall.
That’s my logic for taking out Harvick, Allmendinger, Preece and Briscoe.
Harvick is going to be near the end of his retirement season, a year that seems to weigh on drivers. The destination could overshadow the journey a bit by this stage. I’m also gambling a bit on Harvick continuing to decline statistically based on his age.
Allmendinger won’t have any road courses to help bolster his run through this round. He could still move on through sheer consistency, but I’m not seeing it. I don’t have high expectations for Preece beyond making the playoffs. I do for Briscoe, but it feels like he used up a lot of his playoff luck in 2022. Consider his early exit a hunch.
Most of the drivers I have advancing are safe bets. The riskiest? Probably Wallace, but he showed good pace at these playoff tracks and won at Kansas in 2022.
Round of 12
Advancing: Chastain, Logano, Blaney, Bell, Larson, Truex, Bowman, Reddick
Eliminated: Elliott, Hamlin, Byron, Wallace
This is where I’m taking my biggest calculated risks. Elliott has been a title threat for three-straight years, winning it all in 2020 and making the Championship 4 in the other two seasons.
There’s no reason to think he won’t be similarly competitive in 2023. But it’s challenging to replicate that level of playoff success year after year. The margin for error is small and seemingly shrinks each season.
I’m not saying that Elliott will take a step back competitively in 2023 – just that he’ll have a bit less playoff fortune. Chock this up to mechanical gremlins, a blown tire or even just a mistake somewhere along the way.
The same approach is being brought to Hamlin, who was one Hail Melon away from his fourth-straight Championship 4 berth in 2023. At 42 years old, there’s a chance Hamlin could continue to decline this season after leading nearly 1000 fewer laps in 2022 than he did in 2021. He could just as easily mount a title run in 2023, but I’m predicting a small step back.
A Round of 12 berth would be good for Wallace, but it’s difficult to imagine him going from playoff-less to a semifinal contender in one year. As for Byron, this last pick came down to him and Bowman. In the end I sided with Bowman to advance based on optimism surrounding new crew chief Harris’ impact on the No. 48 team.
Round of 8
Advancing: Logano, Blaney, Larson, Reddick
Eliminated: Chastain, Bell, Truex, Bowman
This is where things get tough. How can you possibly forecast which drivers will be worthy of the Championship 4 before the season? The gap between the contenders and those eliminated at this stage is so slim.
Here’s my thinking behind each advancement:
Logano: There may not be a more consistent driver in the modern Cup Series than Logano. The defending champion is a threat to win anywhere and rarely makes mistakes. He’ll be a hard out and could easily win at any of the Round of 8 tracks.
Blaney: After years of steady growth, Blaney is right with Logano in terms of consistent contention. He’s yet to have the breakout moments of Logano or former teammate Brad Keselowski, but Blaney is a constant threat to win and could easily mount a deep playoff push.
Larson: I mean, we all saw that 2021 season, right? One mistake ruined Larson’s championship defense last year, but he’s still arguably the most naturally-gifted talent in the field. Also, Homestead’s in the Round of 8. ‘Nough said.
Reddick: Could this pick go horribly wrong? Sure! But could Reddick also win when it counts – particularly at Homestead, where he shines? Of course. It stands to reason that at least one Toyota driver will make a Championship 4 run this year. Why not Reddick?
As for the eliminated group…
Chastain showed how dangerous he can be last year, but depending on heroics to mount a serious charge is too risky to assume he’ll make it two years running.
Bell’s due for a bit less fortune after his magical 2022 playoff run, while Truex is 42 and coming off a winless season where his No. 19 team regressed slightly. I have high hopes for MTJ, but don’t want to set the bar all the way at the top.
As for Bowman, while he’s shown strong potential at times, his results can be inconsistent. The Arizonian could make serious steps in his first year with Harris atop the box, but expecting an immediate rise to title contention seems like overkill.
With the final four predicted, all that leaves is one thing.
Championship 4
My Pick: Ryan Blaney
This feels like YRB’s year.
Last season was a selfless one for Blaney, where he played bridesmaid to his Team Penske teammates on NASCAR’s grandest stages.
Cindric’s Daytona 500 win came after strong late support from Blaney, who he nudged into the outside wall in the last dash to the checkered flag. Logano’s title drive in Phoenix was completed with Blaney right on his tail, seemingly serving as a pick with the closest title threat in third.
Blaney showed that he’s a valuable team player for Penske in 2022. Now’s the time to prove that he can be a champion.
The High Point, N.C., native will be among the favorites at the Daytona 500. He’s proven capable of winning on superspeedways, intermediates and unique tracks like Pocono and the Charlotte Roval. He’s yet to win on a short track, but Blaney has a 9.7 career average finish at Martinsville – top among active drivers.
At the track that matters most, Phoenix, Blaney has seven top-10s and five finishes of fourth or better in the past eight Cup races.
Blaney is just 29 years old, but enters the 2023 campaign with 270 Cup races under his belt. He’s been a full-time competitor since 2016 and a playoff participant for six-straight years, with each run ending in a top-10 championship result.
The Team Penske star is at an organization that can supply him title-worthy equipment. He’s an annual winner – include the All-Star Race and Blaney’s been to victory lane for six-straight years – and he runs well at the tracks that matter most for a championship surge.
During his Cup career, Blaney has often been overshadowed by his teammates. And it’s been understandable. Keselowski was the 2012 champ that guided Penske to the front of the field. Logano’s earned two titles and wins in big races, including the Daytona 500. Even Cindric has the Great American Race on his resume after last year.
But Blaney has the potential to be NASCAR’s next breakout star and champion. To step into the spotlight and show that he can beat the sport’s best on the biggest stages.
I think he’ll do just that in 2023.
